MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Friday, September 18, inc. Blue Jays vs Rangers
The MLB regular season is winding down but there is still time to find value in the betting markets. Let's dive in and take a look at my 3 favorite betting angles for Friday, September 18!
MLB Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays ML (-136) over the Texas Rangers
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds.
Dylan Cease struggled with command of the strike zone in his last start, issuing 5 free passes against the Baltimore Orioles. He still survived that outing on pure stuff alone, registering 9 strikeouts to limit Baltimore to 1 run when in the game. Toronto went on to win that matchup by an 8-1 final score in a game I was confident backing Toronto in. I once again am looking to back Toronto with Cease on the mound, this time as they take on the Texas Rangers.
Cease enters play with 166.1 innings under his belt this season. His 236 strikeouts result in a 98th percentile K% to go along with his elite batted ball metrics. Cease has been a dominant force all season and will likely finish 2nd in Cy Young voting in the American League as a result. He faces a Rangers lineup that is slumping hard against right-handed pitching of late. Texas sits 27th in wOBA with an 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days and facing Cease is unlikely to improve those numbers.
Kumar Rocker is the scheduled starter for the Rangers in Friday’s game. Rocker has had a fuller workload this season compared to prior seasons, registering 138.2 innings of work before Friday’s game. His production has been up-and-down, but this will hopefully be a season he can build off of for the future. On the year his 4.54 ERA is backed by a 4.61 xERA. Basically, all of his metrics are slightly below league average including a 44th percentile K% and 38th percentile BB%. Rocker is tasked with a tough matchup on paper as the Blue Jays are currently crushing right-handed pitching. In the last 30 days Toronto sits 5th in wOBA with a 118 wRC+ and a single-digit K-BB%. I favor the Blue Jays on the road in this game.
MLB Best Bet: Cade Cavalli (WAS) over 17.5 outs recorded (-117)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.
Cade Cavalli has been one of my favorite pitchers to back this season in the prop markets, and I am looking to do so once again on Friday as he takes on the St. Louis Cardinals. Cavalli was in the headlines Thursday with reports that he and the Washington Nationals are nearing a contract extension. If true, that extension would be well deserved for Cavalli as he has served as a consistent top-end starter for this Nationals team in 2026. Washington could use a few more quality arms in their pitching stable, but Cavalli and his 3.12 ERA are a good start.
The righty has covered 164.2 innings over his 31 starts, registering 194 strikeouts along the way. His 3.71 xERA largely supports his success while his 87th percentile ground ball rate keeps him efficient. Cavalli allows walks just 7.0% of the time while eliminating many of those free passes via a double play.
St. Louis ranks 22nd in wOBA with a 90 wRC+ against RHP in the last 30 days. In that span they sit 23rd in BB% with the 5th highest ground ball rate as a lineup. This plays right into Cavalli’s strengths and should allow him to work deep into the game. His outs recorded prop for Friday sits at 17.5 with playable juice for the over. Cavalli has recorded 18 or more outs in 11 of his last 12 outings and I favor him to do so once again in this matchup.
MLB Best Bet: Clay Holmes (CHC) over 4.5 strikeouts recorded (+100)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.
The Cincinnati Reds are striking out at an alarming rate against right-handed pitching, and I am looking for that to continue Friday. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching Cincinnati has a 26.3% strikeout rate, the 2nd highest mark in that sample. On 9/7 Emmet Sheehan recorded 10 strikeouts before Yoshinobu Yamamoto matched that mark 2 days later. Dustin May then recorded 6 strikeouts against Cincinnati in 6 scoreless frames. Yamamoto then faced them again and recorded 7 more punch outs. The last 4 right-handed starters to face the Reds have soared past the 4.5 prop assigned to Clay Holmes Friday.
Holmes is not a strikeout artist, and on the season his 18.9% strikeout rate sits just 26th percentile. Still, the matchup is more than ideal for whiffs and I am willing to back him at current pricing. Holmes sits 81st percentile this season in chase rate. While he doesn’t earn a ton of whiffs, consistently drawing opponents out of the zone is a good way to get in favorable counts. Holmes has 6, 8, and 5 Ks in 3 of his last 4 starts made, showing that this line is highly achievable for the right-hander. At current pricing I am willing to bite on his base line and there should be some value in a ladder as well.
