MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Monday, August 3, inc. Astros vs Blue Jays

The MLB trade deadline is today at 6:00 PM EST and there are several moves expected to be made. The landscape of the sport is set to shift before today's games get started, but there is still some early morning value showing for me. Let's dive in and break down my 3 MLB best bets on today's board, while you can also check out our expert MLB picks for all 8 matchups on Monday, August 3, including Giants vs Rangers on ESPN, plus Nationals vs Phillies, Cardinals vs Yankees, Pirates vs Brewers, Dodgers vs Cubs, Blue Jays vs Astros, Rays vs Rockies and Padres vs Diamondbacks.

MLB Best Bet: Michael McGreevy (STL) over 3.5 strikeouts in Cardinals vs Yankees (-175)

Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -190. Can also play over 4.5 strikeouts at +120 or better.

Michael McGreevy is not a strikeout pitcher. The right-handed starter ranks in just the 9th percentile with his 16.2% strikeout rate this season. McGreevy sits in just the 34th percentile in chase rate and 5th percentile in whiff rate. He pitches to contact and looks to limit walks while generating ground ball outs and pitching to contact. I am still looking to back him in the strikeout department Monday as he takes on an elite opportunity to rack up some punchouts.

McGreevy has a 3.5 strikeout prop with prices as low as -175 in the market. His 4.5 prop can be found around +132 for the over. McGreevy has made 21 starts this season, recording 4 or more strikeouts on 9 occasions. The righty did record a season-high 9 strikeouts against the Padres on May 8, showcasing that he does at least have some upside in there for a ladder.

The matchup is the reasoning for this bet as the Yankee bats have been whiffing at alarming rates. In the last 30 days, the Yankees have an MLB-worst 27.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. In that span, they have allowed 19 of the last 22 non-opener right-handed starting pitchers to record 4 or more strikeouts. 16 of the last 20 have recorded 5 or more. This includes arms like Colin Rea with 7, Sean Burke with 10, and Davis Martin with 6 in their last 3 matchups.

See our expert's Cardinals vs Yankees pick on the run line for today

MLB Best Bet: Matthew Boyd (CHC) over 17.5 outs in Dodgers vs Cubs (-154)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165.

Matthew Boyd has been working deep into games for the Chicago Cubs of late, and I expect that to continue on Monday as he and the Cubs take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Los Angeles made headlines by acquiring Tarik Skubal this weekend, but Skubal is not an addition that will help them hit left-handed pitching. In the last 30 days against southpaw hurlers, the Dodgers rank just 23rd in wOBA with a wRC+ of 86. They have the 9th-lowest walk rate and 3rd-lowest strikeout rate in that sample, resulting in a ton of quick at-bats with balls in play. This plays right into Boyd’s strengths.

Boyd ranks in the 73rd percentile in walk rate this season with his rate sitting below 7%. The southpaw also generates an above-average rate of ground balls, which is something I always look for when backing someone in the outs recorded market. Boyd averages just 3.81 pitches per plate appearance, which would tie him for 39th among 116 qualified pitchers if he had enough innings to qualify himself. He has tossed 18 or more outs in each of his last 2 starts with 32.1 innings total across that 5-start stretch.

Read our full Dodgers vs Cubs prediction, including a pick on the money line for tonight's game

MLB Best Bet: Shane Bieber (TOR) over 2.5 earned runs allowed in Blue Jays vs Astros (-115)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.

Shane Bieber faced the Houston Astros back in June during his season debut. The veteran right-hander struggled in that start, allowing 9 base hits and 3 home runs, resulting in 4 earned runs across 3.2 innings of work. He was fortunate to allow just 4 earned runs given the circumstances, and I am not fond of his rematch with the Astros on Monday.

Bieber enters play following a dreadful outing last time out. The righty issued 6 walks, allowing 4 earned runs with just 1 base hit allowed in 0.2 innings. His ERA jumped back up to 5.74 after that start, and his 7.53 xERA is an even worse mark. With a poor batted ball profile, low whiff numbers, and now shaky command, Bieber is not someone I am looking to bet on.

This is especially true when matched up with this Astros offense in current form. Across the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, there has been no hotter lineup than the Houston Astros. In that sample, they sit 1st in wOBA while posting the 6th lowest strikeout rate and a wRC+ of 139. I look for 3 or more earned runs allowed from Bieber in this start.

Get our full Blue Jays vs Astros prediction for tonight's MLB matchup