MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Thursday, July 23, inc. Padres vs Braves & Royals vs Tigers
The all-star break is in the rearview mirror and the 2026 Major League Baseball season continues on with a smaller slate of games on Thursday. The 5-game card includes a couple of intriguing matchups, including a matchup of Twins vs Guardians at 1:10 pm ET. The action gets underway at 12:15 PM ET with Padres vs Braves as they conclude their series. Other games today are Rays vs Blue Jays, Diamondbacks vs Cardinals and Royals vs Tigers. Let's break down my MLB best bets for Thursday, July 23, while you can also find out our expert MLB picks for EVERY GAME today and throughout the entire 2026 campaign!
MLB best bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5 over San Diego Padres (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
The Padres' 2026 season has not gone according to plan, and San Diego continues to sputter along following the break, having dropped 4 of its 6 games in that span. I wouldn't expect the Padres to turn things around on Thursday, especially with Griffin Canning (6.67 ERA, 48.8% hard-hit rate, 24.7% chase rate) on the mound for San Diego against a Braves offense that should be able to thrive at home. On the other side, the hosts will counter with Chris Sale, and the veteran is turning in another excellent season for Atlanta. Sale holds a 2.06 ERA and boasts one of the best strikeout rates in baseball, all while being backed by a rock-solid Atlanta bullpen. All things considered, I'll target the Braves to win by multiple runs at home.
Read our full Padres vs Braves prediction for today's MLB matchup
MLB best bet: Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Under 8.5 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
While the Tigers are massive home favorites in this one, I'm more interested in taking a stab at the total instead of rolling with the hosts on the run line. Kansas City is not known for its offense, and the Royals have just sent Bobby Witt Jr. on the injured list, which negatively impacts a lineup that is already one of the weakest in the league away from home. Detroit starter Troy Melton (1.80 ERA) has been a pleasant surprise for the Tigers, and the right-hander has allowed 1 run or fewer in each of his last 5 outings. On the other side, Kansas City will send Randy Dobnak (1.93 ERA) to the mound and he has been very successful in his role as a starter over a trio of outings to this point. With that in mind, I'll take a shot on the under in this AL Central clash.
Check out our full Royals vs Tigers prediction for today's MLB game
