MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Thursday, September 3, inc. Astros vs White Sox

Let's jump right into things and take a look at my three MLB best bets for Thursday, September 3. For more tips and analysis on every remaining game this season, including all 9 matchups today, be sure to check out our MLB picks, whrere you can find predictions for Giants vs Pirates, Blue Jays vs Guardians, Brewers vs Cubs, Marlins vs Royals, Rays vs Rangers and Cardinals vs Dodgers.

MLB Best Bet: Hunter Brown (HOU) Over 2.5 Walks Allowed in White Sox vs Astros (+100)

Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -115.

While I believe Hunter Brown can pitch well enough on Thursday to help the Astros win a game, that doesn’t exclude Brown from struggling with command at times in this start. The Astros’ ace ranks just 7th percentile this season with a 12.9% walk rate across his first 81 innings pitched. His high strikeout rate and extreme ground-ball rate help him eliminate those base runners and pitch deep into games. Brown’s outs recorded prop for Thursday sits at 17.5 and his strikeout prop sits at 6.5. I do lean over on both props, but I see the most value in betting over 2.5 walks allowed. Brown has allowed at least three free passes in eight of 15 starts made this season. He walked only one batter in his last start but had issued three or more free passes in each of the previous three outings.

The Chicago White Sox are a patient lineup against right-handed pitching of late. In the last 30 days against righties, the White Sox have the top walk rate in baseball at 11.3%. They are striking out often in that span as well, and their offensive production hasn’t been very high overall, but free passes are all we are looking for. There are several batters in the lineup with the patience to see Ball Four.

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MLB Best Bet: Jake Bennett (BOS) Over 4.5 Strikeouts in Red Sox vs Orioles (-132)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145.

Jake Bennett ranks just 31st percentile in strikeout rate this season at 19.8%. He is still someone I have backed in the K prop market, however, and he has come through for me on a couple occasions in advantageous matchups. Bennett has picked up his strikeout production of late, accruing 28 strikeouts in 28 innings pitched during the month of August. He has recorded at least five strikeouts in each of his last four outings including seven, six and six in his last three starts. We need just five strikeouts from the southpaw on Thursday as he takes on the Baltimore Orioles.

Baltimore ranks second-worst in K% this season against left-handed pitching at 25.8%. In the last 30 days, that rate jumps further to 26.3%. They are a productive lineup against lefties, so Bennett may not escape without some damage in the runs department, but I do believe this is a solid price to ask for five Ks. His 97th-percentile chase rate should come into play against this aggressive Orioles lineup, and he has also pitched 13 innings in his last two starts, which helps the total number of batters faced.

Get the full analysis for our Red Sox vs Orioles prediction tonight on FOX

MLB Best Bet: Kade Anderson (SEA) Over 5.5 Strikeouts in Athletics vs Mariners (-115)

Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

Kade Anderson has faced the Chicago Cubs and the Toronto Blue Jays in his first two MLB starts. Those lineups are both top-five in K% against lefties in the last 30 days, while Chicago is also first in wOBA against lefties in that sample. As a result, the highly touted southpaw hurler racked up only eight strikeouts combined in those two starts, falling under this 5.5 prop in both outings.

Anderson draws a far lighter matchup Thursday, however, and I am more than willing to take another stab at his elite strikeout upside. The Mariners’ lefty will face the Athletics away from their hitter-friendly ballpark. Anderson faces a lineup with a 24.2% K% against lefties in the last 30 days. On the season, their 24.6% K% against lefties is the seventh-worst mark in baseball. This has been a lineup with whiff concerns all year long, and Anderson has the stuff to take advantage of that weakness. He posted a K/9 over 13 in AA this season, and I expect a new MLB career-high in strikeouts set by him tonight.

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