MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Tuesday, September 1, inc. Phillies vs Diamondbacks
September is here and we have a ton of quality baseball to look forward to in the final stretch of the regular season. There are several intriguing matchups on Tuesday, September 1, and numerous spots are worth looking into from a betting perspective across the 15-game slate. Let's dive in and discuss my 3 MLB best bets today, while you can also get our expert MLB picks for today's 15 matchups, including Brewers vs Cubs on TBS, Blue Jays vs Guardians, Mariners vs Red Sox, Braves vs Nationals, White Sox vs Astros, Phillies vs Diamondbacks and Cardinals vs Dodgers.
MLB Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML over Arizona Diamondbacks (-135)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds.
I favor the Philadelphia Phillies over the Arizona Diamondbacks as the teams matchup Tuesday night. We have a matchup of left-handed starting pitchers for this game with Jesus Luzardo for the Phillies and Eduardo Rodriguez for the Diamondbacks. Both teams have been mashing left-handed pitching in the last 30 days, but both starting pitchers have put together very strong seasons. This should be an entertaining matchup.
Luzardo enters play with 163 innings under his belt across 27 starts made. Through his first 27 starts the southpaw has posted a 3.09 ERA with an even better 2.87 xERA that sits 92nd percentile. Luzardo has a 93rd percentile strikeout rate and 85th percentile ground ball rate while limiting walks at a 64th percentile clip. His all-around performance has been a career-best, and exactly what Philadelphia hoped for after losing Ranger Suarez.
Rodriguez has 162 innings pitched in his 27 starts, posting a 2.50 ERA through that sample. His xERA of 4.43 is a much higher mark, however, sitting him 31st percentile in that metric. E-Rod’s low K%, low GB%, and shaky batted ball metrics make it surprising to still see his ERA so low as we enter September. The Phillies lineup is extremely patient at the plate right now and should capitalize enough on mistakes to win this game.
Check out our full Phillies vs Diamondbacks prediction for tonight's MLB matchup
MLB Best Bet: Logan Webb (SF) under 2.5 earned runs allowed in Giants vs Pirates (-136)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds.
Logan Webb had a slow start to his 2026 campaign as he took time to adjust to the automated strike zone. Webb is someone who has relied on called strikes and expanded zones throughout his career with his East/West pitching style. Since June Webb has returned to prior form, generating tons of ground balls while limiting walks and pitching efficiently. Webb draws the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, and I believe this is a matchup he can take advantage of.
Webb has made 24 starts so far this season while allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 13 of them. Now he faces a Pirates lineup that is really struggling at the plate. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching Pittsburgh sits 29th in wOBA with a 76 wRC+. They are striking out at an alarming rate against either handedness of pitcher, and Webb’s strikeout over could hold some value as well. My preferred way of backing Webb and fading this Pirates offense is via his earned run prop. Look for Webb to pitch effectively and remain under this posted line.
Get the entire analysis for our Giants vs Pirates prediction tonight
MLB Best Bet: Gerrit Cole (NYY) over 6.5 strikeouts in Yankees vs Angels (+100)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.
The Los Angeles Angels are striking out against right-handed pitching more than anyone else in baseball currently. Across the last 30 days against righties the top K% belongs to Los Angeles at 26.6%. In that sample they sit 28th in wOBA with an 83 wRC+. Their offense has been both inconsistent and uninspiring of late, and I look for Gerrit Cole to take advantage of their poor form Tuesday.
Cole has made 17 starts spanning 98.2 innings of work so far this season for the Yankees. The veteran right-hander has accrued 105 strikeouts in that span, ranking 77th percentile in K% along the way. His 3.19 ERA is backed by a 3.29 xERA and he enters this matchup off 4 consecutive quality starts. Cole has yet to face the Angels this season but there are multiple strikeout targets lingering throughout their batting order. He has accrued 7 or more Ks in 6 of his last 10 starts made and now draws the premier matchup to do so again.
Lock in our Yankees vs Angels prediction for today's MLB game
