MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Wednesday, August 12, inc. Rays vs Athletics
We have a fun slate of MLB action on tap for Wednesday, August 12, and there are 3 bets standing out to me among the rest this morning.
Let's dive in and discuss why I am targeting these MLB best bets today, while you can also get our expert MLB picks for all 15 matchups, including the ESPN double-header featuring Mariners vs Yankees and Rangers vs Angels, along with Orioles vs Twins, Phillies vs Cardinals, Brewers vs Padres, Guardians vs Tigers, Cubs vs Nationals and Red Sox vs Blue Jays.
MLB Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays Team Total Over 5.5 (-102)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115.
The Tampa Bay Rays have been at their best when in their home park this season, but I am willing to back their offense on the road Wednesday as they take on the Athletics. Tampa Bay is in a prime spot to put up a crooked number with the Athletics friendly home park and the weak form of their pitching staff. The Rays enter Wednesday sitting fifth in wOBA with a 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. In that sample they have the eighth-lowest strikeout rate and the 4th highest SLG%, which is a terrific combination to take into Sacramento.
Jack Perkins is the scheduled starter for the Athletics. Perkins has struggled across his last few outings, including 11 earned runs allowed in just 8.1 innings so far this month. His last six appearances have resulted in nine home runs allowed in just 25.2 innings pitched. He isn’t working deep into games, and his team is often left with a deficit when he departs the game. The bullpen behind Perkins has a league-worst 8.40 ERA in the last 30 days, as well. With Tampa Bay locked in to bat all 9 innings I favor the over on their team total.
Get the full analysis for our Rays vs Athletics prediction
MLB Best Bet: Will Warren (NYY) Over 4.5 strikeouts (-126)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
Will Warren has been a different pitcher in his home park compared to his production on the road this season. While his ERA is only about a half run better at home, his strikeout production spikes drastically. Warren has generated just 46 strikeouts across 60.2 innings on the road this year, but when at home he has 68 strikeouts across 53.1 innings pitched. The right-hander has exactly a strikeout per inning pitched overall, but today I am looking to take advantage of these home splits.
Warren has a 4.5 strikeout prop for Wednesday’s start against the Mariners. This is a line he has surpassed in his last three starts overall and 9 of his 11 home outings this season. Seattle is in poor offensive form, ranking 28th in wOBA with a wRC+ of only 78 against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. While their strikeout rate isn’t very high in that stretch, they have been strikeout-prone as a lineup at times this season. A mark of 4.5 isn’t very high, so I see value on the over given current pricing.
Read our full Mariners vs Yankees prediction for tonight's MLB game on ESPN
MLB Best Bet: Robbie Ray (SD) Over 2.5 walks (+114)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +100.
Robbie Ray had a disappointing first start with the San Diego Padres after they acquired him at the trade deadline. The veteran left-hander tossed 5.0 innings while allowing 4 earned runs and issuing 5 free passes in his debut with the Padres. San Diego will look to get a better start out of the former Cy Young winner against Milwaukee on Wednesday.
The Brewers are not in the best of form against southpaw pitching in the last 30 days. In that sample, the team ranks just 17th in wOBA with a 91 wRC+. They have a massive strikeout rate of 27.0%, which sits as the second-highest mark during that stretch of play behind Baltimore. They are drawing walks still, however, sitting 8th in that stretch with a 10.1% walk rate. On the season against lefties, the Brewers sit 3rd in walk rate at 10.9%.
Ray has had issues with command throughout the season, ranking just 15th percentile with his 11.5% rate this season. He lives in the zone 5.6% less than league average and generates just a 33rd percentile chase rate. In this matchup I see value in betting the over on his walks allowed prop.
Check out our expert's Brewers vs Padres pick for today
