Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/07/26

I favor the Miami Marlins over the Baltimore Orioles as they match up on Thursday evening. Max Meyer is the scheduled starter for Miami, and he enters play with a 2.68 ERA through his first 37 innings of work. Meyer has a 2.98 FIP to back that mark up, and despite a 3.88 xERA I am a believer in Miami’s right-hander. I am a sucker for quality strikeout profiles, and Meyer’s is strong with a 77th percentile whiff rate and 80th percentile chase rate. Meyer is able to win both in and out of the zone, and now he gets an Orioles lineup with the 4th highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Cade Povich matches up against a Marlins lineup that struggled against southpaw pitching relative to their performance against right-handers. Still, Povich is an arm with inconsistency, and I am not overly fond of his current form. His last start resulted in 2 home runs and 5 earned runs across 4 innings against the Yankees. He pitched well against a poor Giants offense and survived against the Pirates, who can’t hit lefties, in his other 2 outings. Overall, his 4.41 ERA has a 4.94 xERA and his batted ball profile is shaky. While not my favorite game on the board, I do side with Miami.

Marlins vs Orioles prediction: Marlins ML (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds.

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