Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/06/26

The Cincinnati Reds are a team that has outperformed their talent level to begin this season, in my opinion. They have elite talent at shortstop and first base, and there are youthful pitchers in their rotation (and on the IL) that have very high upside. Outside of that they are a team with a weak bullpen and several holes in their lineup. Brady Singer is struggling on the mound for Cincinnati, posting a 5.57 ERA with an even worse 6.17 xERA and 5.74 FIP. Singer is failing to miss bats and he is allowing far too much hard contact. Now he gets a tough matchup against a Cubs lineup sitting 5th in wOBA with a 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

Colin Rea is the preferred starter in this matchup by default. Rea has been respectable for Chicago so far this season, posting a 4.41 ERA through his first 32.2 innings of work. The right-handed veteran has a 4.41 xERA to match that ERA, but his FIP of 3.42 is nearly a full run better. Rea has been able to do 2 things very well. He is throwing strikes with his 6.3% walk rate ranking 82nd percentile. It makes sense to pitch to contact when you have the infield defenders that Rea has behind him. It also helps when you can generate an 86th percentile ground ball rate. Look for Rea to slice through this Reds lineup and lead the Cubs to a win.

Cubs vs Reds prediction: Cubs ML (-168) available at time of publishing. Playable to -175.

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