Colorado Rockies vs New York Mets Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/25/26

This is a classic Over spot driven almost entirely by the pitching context. When you have two starters carrying a combined ERA north of 7.50, the path to runs is clear, and that’s exactly what we get with Jose Quintana for the Colorado Rockies and Kodai Senga for the New York Mets. Neither arm has found rhythm early in the season. Both enter without a win and have been consistently hittable, allowing traffic and struggling to put hitters away. That’s the key, this isn’t just about runs allowed, it’s about baserunners. When pitchers are putting men on base, innings can unravel quickly, and eclipsing a total like this becomes very attainable.

Quintana, at this stage of his career is a walking machine. He averages over 6 walks per nine innings. He also carries a 29% groundball rate which means balls are routinely hit hard. His xERA hovers at 7.59 and FIP matches at 7.61. These are staggering numbers. Against a Mets lineup that can generate offense in bunches when given opportunities, that’s a dangerous combination. On the other side, Senga hasn’t been sharp. Even against Colorado, if his command isn’t there that could also lead to some crooked numbers. Senga’s 5.19 BB/9, 28.6% groundball percentage, and 5.34 FIP reinforce the thesis that he is vulnerable and not dealing well either. From there, you still have bullpens to consider, and neither side offers a guaranteed shutdown unit. That opens the door for late scoring on top of the prospect of both starters getting clipped. Take the Over.

Rockies vs Mets prediction: Over 8.5 Runs (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Over 9 Runs.