Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/04/26

I favor the over in Monday’s matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Houston Astros. While I would bet Los Angeles to win the game if forced to, I don’t see much value in their current pricing. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the ace of this pitching staff. He was remarkable in the 2025 postseason but has not been in his best form to begin 2026. Through his first 37.2 innings, he has a 2.87 ERA — but his 4.04 xERA and 3.63 FIP are not as strong. While still not issuing walks, Yamamoto has seen a dip in his strikeout rate and massive hit to his ground-ball rate. He ranked 91st percentile in that metric last season and is in the 36th percentile so far this year. Houston also ranks 2nd in wOBA with a 122 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

Houston is rolling with a bullpen game opened by Steven Okert. I won’t spend too much time on Okert specifically, as there will be numerous arms used, but this Houston bullpen has struggled so far this season. They enter Monday ranking dead last in both ERA and FIP this season, and both AJ Blubaugh and Enyel De Los Santos are likely both unavailable for this game. Los Angeles ranks fourth in wOBA with a 120 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Against lefties, the Dodgers sit second in wOBA with a 123 wRC+. They should produce offensively regardless of who pitches in this game.

Dodgers vs Astros prediction: Over 8.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to 9.

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