Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/03/26

I favor the over on the posted game total in Sunday’s matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Washington Nationals. Let’s start with the elephant in the room that is Zack Littell’s home run issue. Through 28.2 innings of work, the right-handed veteran has surrendered 13 home runs, with 2 or more in 5 of his 6 starts. This comes a year after allowing 36 home runs in 186.2 innings of work. His 14.5%-barrel rate ranks 6th percentile entering Sunday, and while Milwaukee is not a power-based offense, I’m not sure it matters at this point. Littell ranks 1st percentile in whiff rate, and this Brewers offense has the 3rd-highest contact rate of any offense.

Chad Patrick is not my favorite option in current form, either. The Brewers’ right-hander has a 2.57 ERA through 28 innings of work, but his underlying metrics don’t necessarily support his success. His 4.26 xERA and 4.33 FIP are more likely around his true end of season ERA, and his baseball savant page is littered with blue circles. Patrick is not striking anyone out right now, ranking 9th percentile with a 14% strikeout rate. With 13 walks issued to just 16 strikeouts recorded and an 18th percentile ground ball rate, Patrick does not have a desirable profile to bet on.

Nationals vs Brewers prediction: Over 8.5 (-102) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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