Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/09/26

After yesterday’s loss to the Cleveland Guardians, the Minnesota Twins still find themselves at the bottom of the AL Central standings, but they remain within striking distance at just 4.5 games back of first place Cleveland. The Twins have struggled on the road this season, going 6-13 while the Guardians are 10-7 at home. Taking the mound for the Twins will be Joe Ryan who is 2-3 with a 3.72 ERA this season. Ryan was cleared to start after exiting his last outing early due to elbow soreness, but there are still concerns surrounding his workload heading into this matchup. For the Guardians, Tanner Bibee will look to pick up his first win as he enters at 0-5 with a 4.58 ERA. 

Offensively, the Twins have actually been hitting the ball well lately, hitting .251 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over their last 14. The bigger issue has been their pitching staff, which owns a concerning 5.93 ERA during that stretch. Cleveland is hitting .239 and averaging 4.5 runs per game while holding a 4.02 ERA in that same span. I get that it’s hard to trust Bibee when you look at his numbers, but a lot of that is from his one bad start against the Braves where he gave up 8 earned runs. In his last four starts, he’s 0-3 with a 3.00 ERA. It’s very difficult to trust a Twins team to secure a win in this matchup with a bullpen that holds a 5.81 ERA this season, and with uncertainty surrounding Ryan and his elbow. Taking everything into consideration, I’m going to stick with the home team who has been steady offensively and has the better bullpen to shut things down late in the game. 

Twins vs Guardians prediction: Guardians ML (-120) at time of publishing. Playable to -135. 

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