New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Friday, 05/08/26

The New York Mets have lost 5 consecutive Nolan McLean starts, but the right-hander gives them a clear starting pitching edge on Friday when they host the Arizona Diamondbacks. McLean enters Friday with a 2.97 ERA in his first 39.1 innings of work. His 2.33 xERA and 2.12 FIP suggest he has been even more dominant, and I am a fan of his matchup against Arizona. The Diamondbacks offense was explosive in Game 1 of their series with Pittsburgh, but they were absolutely silent in Games 2 and 3. They scored just 2 combined runs against Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller, and their competition level doesn’t get any easier Friday.

Ryne Nelson is the scheduled starter for Arizona in this game. Nelson had a strong 2025 campaign and gained a ton of supporters entering this year. His results have not been there, however, posting a 6.61 ERA in his first 31.1 innings. Nelson’s 5.79 xERA and 5.50 FIP aren’t much better, and his batted-ball profile is extremely concerning. He is allowing far too much hard contact, and his inability to keep those hard hit balls on the ground could be detrimental in any matchup. Nelson has been especially poor at home, posting a 14.40 ERA through his first 3 home outings. At current pricing, I side with the Mets despite their poor form.

Mets vs Diamondbacks prediction: NY Mets ML (-136) available at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

You can bet on our Mets vs Diamondbacks pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!