Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves predictions

Sun 4/11 7:08 ET
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
5-3
4-4
Braves
Atlanta Braves
Truist Park

Pickswise's Expert Predictions & Analysis

Money Line Prediction
PHI Phillies Win
Odds
Bonus
Game Totals Prediction
Over
Odds
Bonus

Money Line Prediction

Major League Baseball fans are in for a treat on Sunday Night Baseball this week as the two best teams in the National League East face off in what should be a tightly contested contest. After sweeping the Atlanta Braves during the opening weekend of the season, Matt Moore will be handed the ball and tasked with avoiding a sweep this time around. The Braves have taken each of the first two games of this series and will turn to Drew Smyly as they look to pull into a first-place tie in the division. Moore has not been an above-average pitcher since his 2012 campaign with the Tampa Bay Rays, but only once since then has he posted a season-long FIP above 5.00. This means that, although Moore is far from elite, he typically gives his team an opportunity to win each time out, even if he is rarely the sole reason that his team wins a game. Smyly has posted numbers similar to Moore in each year he has pitched since 2016, with the exception being his dominant 2020 in which he likely benefited from a small sample size. 

In 2020, the Phillies offense ranked top-six in baseball in OPS, ISO, wOBA, BB%, and K% versus left-handed pitching. The Braves ranked 14th in OPS, 13th in ISO and had the second-worst strikeout percentage of any team against lefties. While Smyly might be the slightly more talented pitcher in this matchup, the Phillies offense is arguably the most potent in the league against left-handed pitching and should be ready to come out swinging as they hope to avoid a sweep. Back them with confidence here as they hope to retain sole possession of first place.

Game Totals Prediction

During the opening weekend series between these two teams, the under hit in all three games. A week later, it is likely that the over will hit in all three games of this series. Each of the last two games have seen a total of nine runs put on the board–both games featuring high-quality starting pitching. Tonight, the Phillies and Braves are sending the back of their rotation arms to the hill against the same lethal offensive attacks that have been on the diamond all weekend. There is a lot of value on MLB totals early in the season as the market tries to adjust to volatile weather patterns and the early season misperceptions of teams. The weather is going to be in the low-70s at first pitch, meaning that there should be no inhibitions to an offensive show in this one. Take the over.

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