Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/07/26

Paul Skenes was lights out against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday night, tossing 8 scoreless innings. Pittsburgh was able to complete the shutout with a scoreless 9th from Gregory Soto, and I expect another strong performance from Pittsburgh’s pitching staff Thursday. Mitch Keller is the scheduled starter for the Pirates as the veteran right-hander is set for his 8th start of the season. Keller has been sharp, posting a 2.85 ERA across his first 41 innings of work while allowing just 1 home run. His 93rd percentile barrel rate is a key reason why, and despite 2 starts with 4 walks issued Keller still ranks 69th percentile in walk rate. Arizona is also 27th in wOBA with an 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. 

Pittsburgh has been better than Arizona against right-handed pitching, ranking 8th in wOBA with a 107 wRC+. Their everyday lineup currently has 7 batters with an above average wRC+, and they face the starter in worse form. Zac Gallen has traditionally been better in his home park, but he has struggled so far in 2026. His 4.45 ERA in 32.1 innings of work is shadowed by a 5.21 xERA thanks to a 16th percentile hard-hit rate and poor strikeout metrics. I favor Pittsburgh to grab another win in this game.

Pirates vs Diamondbacks prediction: Pirates ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.

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