Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/24/26

The National League Central has been the best division in Major League Baseball through the first 4 weeks of play. All 5 teams enter Friday at least 2 games above .500, as Pittsburgh and Milwaukee are set to face off for the first time this season — both off a series loss. Pittsburgh lost 2 of 3 games in Texas while Milwaukee lost 2 of 3 games in Detroit. Game 1 of this series is set to be a pitcher’s duel with both team’s aces taking the mound.

Paul Skenes is set to make his 6th start of the season for the Pirates, and I expect a strong outing from the defending Cy Young award winner. Skenes had his last outing shortened by a 2-hour rain delay, a game in which Pittsburgh blew a 4-0 lead. Paul was sharp in his 4 innings of work, however, shutting out the Rays while recording 5 strikeouts with 0 walks issued. Through 22 innings, Skenes ranks 90th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xBA and xERA, and his command of the zone has been improved in his last 2 starts. Milwaukee is a tough lineup, ranking 8th in wOBA with a 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, but Skenes has held active Brewers to a .583 OPS in 46 combined plate appearances.

Brandon Woodruff is the scheduled starter for Milwaukee, as the veteran looks to make his 5th start of the year. Woodruff allowed 2 solo home runs in his season opener against Tampa Bay but survived that outing with 5 innings of 2-run ball. He struggled in Boston in his 2nd start with 5 earned runs allowed, but Woodruff has bounced back in his last 2 outings against Washington and Miami — tossing 13 innings with 2 earned runs allowed. His command of the zone has been terrific so far, issuing just 4 walks across his first 23.2 innings. That being said, Woodruff has seen a dip in strikeout production with his 32nd-percentile whiff rate and just a 21.3% strikeout rate. He is not a ground ball pitcher, and if the strikeout rate remains this low, it will be challenging for Woodruff to earn those easy outs in 2026. Pittsburgh has also been decent against right-handers, ranking 13th in wOBA with a wRC+ of 103. It is unusual to see Skenes priced at -135, especially with Pittsburgh’s high leverage arms rested behind him, but at current pricing, I side with the Pirates.

Pirates vs Brewers prediction: Pirates ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable to -145.

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