San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins predictions

Sat 7/24 6:10 ET
San Diego Padres
Miami Marlins
loanDepot park

Pickswise's Expert Predictions & Analysis

Money Line Prediction
SD Padres Win
Game Total Prediction

Money Line Prediction

The San Diego Padres have picked up right where they left off in the first half of the season, winning five of their first seven contests in the latter half of July. The Marlins have unfortunately also picked up right where they left off in the first half, losing seven of their first nine games out of the All-Star break. Per local reports, Braxton Garrett is expected to take the ball for the Marlins tonight as they try to end their two-game losing streak. He will be opposed by Ryan Weathers. Weathers owns an appealing 2.91 ERA across 58.2 innings of work in 2021, but his 5.08 xERA and 4.53 FIP indicate that he has been far more lucky than good to this point. His surface-level numbers are buoyed by an unsustainably-low .248 BABIP against him and an 86.5 left-on-base percentage. Despite the obvious signs of imminent regression, Weathers might be able to have a strong outing tonight against a Marlins team that strikes out more than any other team in baseball against southpaws. Against left-handed pitching, Miami also ranks 29th in OPS and 28th in ISO.

Garrett owns a 5.40 ERA and a 5.66 FIP in 23.1 career big-league innings. He was the seventh overall pick in the 2016 June Amateur Draft, but Garrett has not been even somewhat impressive since the A level of the minor leagues. There is little reason for bettors to expect a strong performance from him in this one against a very good San Diego lineup. Weathers is far from an elite option on the mound, but he is matched up against one of the most inept offenses in Major League Baseball this evening. Even if Weathers struggles, an offensive shootout is a game that San Diego is much more prepared to handle. Put your faith in the Padres as they go for their fourth consecutive victory tonight.

Game Total Prediction

LoanDepot park has a reputation as one of the most pitcher-friendly confines in Major League Baseball and that is true, to an extent. Over the last three years, this venue has been the most pitcher-friendly park in the league in day games, but night games have produced offensive numbers in line with the league average.

The first two games of this series have seen game totals of five and seven runs, respectively, but a less talented starting pitching matchup tonight should yield the first over of this four-game set. Weathers is nowhere near the talent level of Blake Snell or Joe Musgrove, who started each of the last two days for San Diego. Garrett is unlikely to be able to do much, if anything, to slow down one of the best offensive attacks in the game. Expect this to be a high-scoring affair. Take the over.

Over 8.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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