San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 05/05/26

San Diego’s offensive slump continued Monday in a 3-2 loss to the San Francisco Giants. In his season debut, 25-year-old Trevor McDonald worked 7.0 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball, fanning 8 in the process while not giving up a single walk. Unfortunately for the Padres, they will have to face another strong right-handed pitcher on Tuesday when they go up against Logan Webb. Webb’s numbers (2-3, 4.30 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) don’t jump off the page at you, but the trusty starter has gone at least 6.0 full innings in 6 of his 7 starts despite allowing a good bit of traffic on the bases. He is the preferred starter in this matchup, as Walker Buehler has struggled for years at this point. 

At 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP, Buehler is hardly reliable — and his advanced metrics don’t suggest there is much positive regression coming. For reference, his left-on-base percentage, swinging strike rate and hard-hit percentage are all among the worst of his career — which doesn’t bode well for a road start. Not that the Giants are very good offensively, but they have found a groove at home of late — taking 2 of 3 from the Phillies, Dodgers and Marlins following a disastrous 1-6 SU home mark to start the year.

In addition to the starting pitching advantage, San Francisco has the bullpen advantage. With the second-best ERA, the Giants bullpen has allowed the second-fewest runs and hits in the league. The Padres’ bullpen has an ERA that is almost a full run higher, while it has surrendered 21 more runs and 32 more hits. Given similar struggles among both offenses, I’m going to side with the better pitching staff playing at home in a pitcher-friendly park.

Padres vs Giants prediction: San Francisco Giants ML (-130) at the time of publishing. Playable to -135.

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