San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 04/16/26

The Cincinnati Reds have won the first 2 games of their series with the San Francisco Giants, and they will look to finish off the home sweep Thursday afternoon. Cincinnati is favored to win on Thursday, but I am instead focusing on the posted game total in this matchup. Games played in Great American Ballpark have more variance on the totals given the hitter-friendly conditions, but I still find this total to be a bit too high.

Chase Burns is the scheduled starter for Cincinnati on Thursday. Burns is set to make his 4th start of the season. His first 2 starts were terrific with 11 innings of 1-run ball and 16 strikeouts. He struggled in his last outing, striking out just 2 Angels while walking 4 and allowing 5 earned runs in his 5.1 innings. I look for him to bounce back with a strong effort this time around against a Giants offense that ranks 29th in wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Landen Roupp is set to make his 4th start of the season as well in this game. Roupp had his rough start in his 2nd outing against the Mets, allowing 5 earned runs in that start. His other 2 outings have combined for 12 innings of 1-run ball, however, and overall, his form looks pretty good. He has been drawing a ton of weak contact and keeping the ball on the ground with 0 home runs allowed so far. Both bullpens have numerous available arms, and I favor the under in this game.

Giants vs Reds prediction: Under 8.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.

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