Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins Predictions

Sun 4/11 2:10 ET
Seattle Mariners
Minnesota Twins
Target Field

Pickswise's Expert Predictions & Analysis

Run Line Prediction
MIN Twins
Game Totals Prediction

Run Line Prediction

After taking the first game of this weekend’s series against the Seattle Mariners by a final score of 10-2, the Minnesota Twins suffered defeat yesterday 4-3 in extra innings. Fortunately for them, they have an extremely favorable matchup lined up for Sunday afternoon as they attempt to win their third consecutive series to begin the 2021 campaign. 

In this matchup, the Mariners will send Chris Flexen to the hill. In his Major League career, Flexen has been nothing short of a disaster, posting a 5.56 FIP in 2019 and owning a career FIP above 6.50 against both right- and left-handed batters at the professional level. In his last full season in the big-leagues, he walked more batters than he struck out and posted an unsightly 2.05 WHIP. He did throw over a hundred innings in 2020 in the KBO, posting a respectable 2.74 FIP, but that is an entirely different level of competition compared to the MLB circuit. Admittedly, he looked sharp in his 2021 debut, lasting 5.0 innings and striking out six batters against a feeble San Francisco Giants lineup. He is likely to experience major regression this afternoon against a Twins lineup that ranked seventh in OPS and fourth in ISO in 2020 versus right-handed pitching.

Matt Shoemaker will take the ball for the Twins in the rubber match as he looks to build on a strong first start of the year in which he took a no-hitter into the latter frames against the Detroit Tigers. Shoemaker has a career 3.32 FIP pitching at home and should be able to neutralize a Mariners offense that has scored more than four runs only once in their last seven games. Back Minnesota in this one with confidence.

Game Totals Prediction

The Mariners ranked in the bottom-third in nearly every offensive category against right-handed pitching in 2020. Yet, as mentioned above, the Twins destroyed righties and have the potential to hit the over in this game with their bats alone. Seattle had the worst bullpen in all of baseball a season ago, posting a 5.81 FIP while striking out the third-fewest batters and walking the third-most–not a recipe for keeping runs off of the board. The Twins should be able to get to Flexen early and often in this one. Shoemaker is capable of another strong outing, but he is not a front of the rotation quality pitcher. It would not be surprising to see this line get bet up to 9 or 9.5 prior to first pitch. Jump on the over here while there is still value.

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