2021 NFL Draft: Best bets for which position teams will draft first - Colts set to load up the D-Line

Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard speaks to the media during the 2020 NFL Combine in the Indianapolis Convention Center.

Andrew Ortenberg

NFL

Show Bio

I'm an NFL handicapper here at Pickswise who was raised in a household full of sports fanatics. Since I unfortunately never had LeBron James' jumping ability I wasn't able to make it to the NBA, and chose writing about sports as the next best thing. An avid sports bettor myself, I'm excited to get to write about the industry as it gets set to take off across the country. Buckle up.

Updated: 9:26 AM ET June 03, 2021

The big event of the offseason is about to get underway, the 2021 NFL Draft. The draft is always great to wager on, with a seemingly endless string of props available to bet on. There are of course over/under on individual players, and you can check out our favorite of those plays here.

Of course, mock draft season is in full swing, and we’ve got our own one of those here. It’s fun to handicap what areas of need teams have, and that’s what we’ll be looking at today. We’re diving into our best plays for the ‘position of teams’ first draft pick’ props.

Colts – defensive lineman (+200)

You could’ve gotten +300 earlier in the week, but there is still some value at this price. +200 implies a 33 percent cash probability, when this one looks closer to 50/50. Everyone seems to think Indy will add to one of their trenches, and right now offensive line is a significant favorite. I think that’s misguided. Indy did have a big hole at offensive tackle when Anthony Castonzo retired, but their need at edge rusher is more glaring.

They signed Sam Tevi, who started at least 14 games the past three seasons for the Chargers, to give them a viable tackle option. On the other hand, they did virtually nothing at defensive end. Justin Houston is still a free agent, and 2018 second-rounder Kemoko Turay just had another surgery. Their edge-rushing depth chart is pitiful, and GM Chris Ballard knows that. Chances are high that they go with someone like Azeez Ojulari from Georgia or Jaelan Phillips from Miami.

Giants – offensive lineman (+300)

Getting +300 here is a steal, and I’m not sure why receiver is +150. I think that should be closer to the other way around. After giving Kenny Golladay a massive contract in free agency, I just don’t see Dave Gettleman using his first-round pick on another receiver. With Golladay, Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley, Daniel Jones has enough weapons.

What Jones really needs now is better protection. If Rashawn Slater falls to 11, I think the Giants nab him and get a potential Pro Bowl tackle. If Slater is gone I think they’ll upgrade the interior offensive line and grab someone like Alijah Vera-Tucker from USC. Remember, the team cut Kevin Zeitler, their top lineman, earlier this offseason to save money.

Broncos – offensive player (-182)

DraftKings also lets you bet on whether the first pick will be an offensive or defensive player. For the Broncos, offense makes a lot of sense rather than betting a specific position. That’s because I see them going with either an offensive lineman or a quarterback, but I’m not sure which.

New GM George Paton has stated explicitly that the team isn’t going to hand Drew Lock the starting quarterback job. As such, I can definitely see them taking Justin Fields in the top ten. If the quarterbacks they like are all gone, they’ll likely switch to tackle. They need a right tackle of the future opposite Garrett Bolles, and either Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater would be nice additions at nine.

Cowboys – defensive lineman (+700)

If you’re looking for a play with big odds to sprinkle a few bucks on, this is your target. Everyone seems to think the Cowboys are locked in on a cornerback, but I’m not so sure. While they could use help in the secondary for sure, they arguably need more help off the edge. Dallas already didn’t have much pass-rush outside of DeMarcus Lawrence, and then they let Aldon Smith walk in free agency.

Lawrence has been a bit of a disappointment the past two seasons, and turns 29 this week. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network has the Cowboys taking edge rusher Kwity Paye of Michigan at 10 in his latest mock draft, and he’s one of the most plugged-in guys out there. This certainly isn’t as much of a long-shot as +700 indicates.

Be sure to check out Pickwise’s other 2021 NFL Draft content:

Pickswise is the home of free expert NFL Picks and NFL Predictions. Check our season previews and NFL Futures Bets leading up to the NFL Season, including our favorite NFL Prop Bets for the 2021 season.