2022 NFL season odds and best bets for player over/under touchdown totals: Justin Fields to make a leap in year two

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields
Photo of Ricky Dimon

Ricky Dimon

NFL · 2 weeks ago

Show Bio

Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

With the 2022 NFL campaign a little more than a month away, it’s certainly time to start looking ahead toward the long-awaited festivities. The dog days of summer will soon give way to the best time of the year: football season. A ferocious five-month battle for the Lombardi Trophy begins on September 8 with Thursday Night Football featuring the Bills and Rams. Sure, why don’t we get started right away with a potential Super Bowl preview?!

For now, though, we are discussing individual players. NFL player props are among the most popular betting markets in the business, and season-long touchdown numbers are no exception. Let’s take a look at the best plays to be made in 2022.

Read our passing leader predictions and player over/under yardage best bets

Justin Fields over 18.5 passing touchdowns (-110)

The sample size of Fields’ professional work is small – which is a good thing since that sample isn’t great. Fields started only 10 games last year for the Bears, splitting time with veteran quarterback Andy Dalton. More interceptions (10) than touchdowns (7) is alarming, but there is no reason to be discouraged if you are Fields or a Fields backer. He was a rookie playing on a bad team with an even worse head coach (Matt Nagy).

Chicago probably won’t make a big leap as a team in 2022, but at least the franchise has a new head coach (Matt Eberflus) and new offensive coordinator (Luke Getsy). Getsy spent the last three seasons as the Packers’ quarterbacks coach and he was also their passing game coordinator in 2021. It’s true that Aaron Rodgers can make anyone look good, but that is a legitimate reason for optimism surrounding Getsy.

As for player personnel, the Bears added receivers Byron Pringle and Velus Jones Jr. to help Fields. Tight end Cole Kmet (612 yards last year) should only improve in his third season. Nobody is going to confuse Chicago’s pass-catchers with being elite, but nobody is going to confuse 18.5 with being a big number. Look for Fields to make significant strides as a full-time starter in year two and reach the 20-mark in passing scores.

Which NFL team could be this year’s Bengals? Our expert has three picks

Najee Harris over 9.5 rushing touchdowns (-105)

Double-digits in the touchdown department is not too much to expect from a player I believe can emerge as the best running back in the league sooner rather than later – and by “sooner” I mean “this season.” Harris is 24 years old and entering his second go-around in the league. In the current NFL landscape, 24 years old and one year of experience under the belt is the prime of a running back’s career. The former Alabama standout scored 7 rushing TDs in 2021 (also 3 receiving) with Ben Roethlisberger under center for Pittsburgh. Now it will be either Mitchell Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett running the show.

Regardless of how that quarterback battle pans out, it’s safe to say Harris will be the focal point of the Steelers’ offense – to an even greater extent than he was last season. He is going to be one of those guys whom you can just assume going into each week will give your fantasy team at least one touchdown and/or cash your anytime touchdown scorer bet.

Najee Harris warming up before Pittsburgh's pre-season game against Detroit

Adam Thielen under 7.5 receiving touchdowns (-120)

Thielen is on the wrong side of 30 (he is 31), which doesn’t necessarily spell disaster for a wide receiver, but certainly is worrisome. In his first five years in the NFL, Thielen played a full 16 games. He has failed to stay on the field for a full schedule in each of the past three seasons for the Vikings. That shouldn’t come as any surprise. The Minnesota State product still found the endzone 10 times in 2021, but he scored 14 TDs in 2020. Thielen is wearing down, and I expect his numbers to continue doing the same.

Meanwhile, Justin Jefferson is becoming one of the best receivers in the game and K.J. Osborn – also drafted in 2020 – is on the rise. Keep in mind that Minnesota still has Dalvin Cook manning the backfield, so Thielen is nowhere near one of the top options in that offense. There are only so many TDs a mediocre QB like Kirk Cousins can throw, and I don’t anticipate Thielen being the recipient of many.

Get our picks for who wins Super Bowl 57, including a +4500 longshot bet

Pickswise is the home of free expert NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Be sure to check out all of our season previews and NFL Futures Bets leading up to the 2022 NFL season.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

BetMGM

$200

Get $200 in Free Bets & a PICKSWISE HAT!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline wager on any team

Win $200 in free bets and a FREE Pickswise hat

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$250

Bet One, Get One: FanDuel will match your first bet placed up to $250 in free bets

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Deposit at least $10 into your account

FanDuel will match your first bet up to $250 in Free Bets!

Must be 21+ in CO. First deposit of at least $10 required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.