Javan Shouey
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The Oakland Athletics continue to whiff on pitches at an alarming rate, and with their current plate discipline they are a team I am looking to attack in the strikeout prop department for the foreseeable future. Today they face off against the Seattle Mariners and Logan Gilbert, a pitcher with a ton of strikeout upside. Let’s dive into our best MLB player props for Wednesday, June 5, as we look to build on our 8-1 run! You can also find out our MLB picks for today’s games.
Logan Gilbert over 5.5 strikeouts recorded (-170)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Risking 0.63u.
Logan Gilbert over 6.5 strikeouts recorded (+124)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Risking 0.37u.
In total, we are betting a unit on Logan Gilbert to record over 6 strikeouts, as we would get our money back if he lands exactly on 6 punchouts. The Seattle Mariners’ right-hander has been a steady presence in their starting rotation for several seasons now and today I am looking to back him in an advantageous matchup. The Oakland Athletics’ bats are displaying rather horrid plate discipline metrics at the moment, and right-handed starting pitchers have been feasting in the K department of late. Across the last 30 days of play, Oakland boasts the league’s 3rd-highest K% at 26.6%. In that span alone, 16 right-handers have accrued 6 or more strikeouts against this lineup, including each of the last 13 non-openers. Among those last 13, 10 of them have recorded 7 or more strikeouts which would cash our bet tonight.
I backed George Kirby against this lineup yesterday despite Kirby’s poor road splits and underwhelming strikeout totals overall. Kirby was able to produce 8 punch outs in just 5 innings of work, clearing his 5.5 mark in the 3rd inning. Gilbert enters this game having recorded 5 or fewer Ks in 4 of his last 5 outings and only 27 strikeouts in 36.1 combined innings during the month of May. His opponents had a lot to do with the decreased strikeout rate, however, as Gilbert saw a tough slate of K-averse lineups. In that span, he saw the Astros twice, the Twins, Royals, Yankees and Nationals. All of those teams are in the bottom 13 of K% against righties within the last month.
Gilbert’s season-long strikeout production is still impressive, ranking in the 73rd percentile with his 12.8% swinging strike rate. Only once in his last 7 starts has his swinging strike rate dipped below 11.0%. His 67.3% first-pitch strike rate should play well against an Oakland lineup with the league’s 11th-lowest first-pitch swing rate. In the last 30 days, Oakland has the 9th-lowest swing rate overall. This combined with their hefty swinging strike rate has resulted in the 2nd highest CSW% in MLB during that span. There are numerous strikeout targets in this lineup and with Gilbert’s outs line at 18.5, he should have numerous chances to find K’s.
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