NFL

NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Top Picks for Sunday's Games

UpdatedOct 2, 2026

Reading time8 min

It's hard to believe, but we're already into NFL Week 4, and we've got our best bets for you on what should be another wild Sunday of action. Thursday Night Football saw the Cleveland Browns move to 3-1 after edging the Pittsburgh Steelers, and plenty of teams on Sunday will be looking to follow suit. We have a strong 14-game menu, starting at 9:30 AM ET in London with Colts vs Commanders. With that in mind, let's get into our NFL best bets for Week 4, while you can find out our expert NFL picks for every game this week and throughout the entire season.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 over Washington Commanders (-115)

Odds generally available at time of publishing.

When Washington and Indianapolis invade England, the question becomes: can the Commanders take command, or will the Colts buck and kick them where it hurts? Last weekend, Indianapolis finally earned its first win of the season -- edging out a victory over Houston by two points on a field goal after the two-minute warning. Washington also picked up its first win, knocking off the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks. The catch? Neither team may be as bad as its record suggests, as both have battled key injuries and suffered a string of close losses. However, if talent alone tips the scales, the Colts may hold a slight edge.

The Commanders enter Sunday's matchup without starting quarterback Jayden Daniels, who dislocated his left elbow in Dallas in a game Washington likely wins if he doesn't go down. Marcus Mariota proved capable in the victory over Seattle, but he will face a Colts secondary that has found its footing. Indianapolis held Houston to 17 points and pushed Kansas City to overtime, and that recent defensive surge is a big reason I believe the Commanders come up short across the pond.

Both teams have traveled a similar road to this point in the season. However, Indianapolis' recent spark on defense - combined with its collection of offensive weapons - should prove too much for Washington to overcome. Star receiver Alec Pierce won't suit up on Sunday, but quarterback Daniel Jones still has plenty of playmakers at his disposal. I expect the Colts to eclipse their team total and finish at least four points clear of the Commanders, comfortably covering the spread.

Pick and analysis from expert handicapper Aaron Taylor.

As well as our Colts vs Commanders prediction on the side, you can also find out Aaron's pick on the total

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Arizona Cardinals -2.5 over New York Giants (-106)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

New York is 2-1, but the record hides how much this team has lost in the last two weeks. Jaxson Dart is out for the regular season with a knee injury, and star pass rusher Brian Burns tore his ACL in the fourth quarter of Sunday's 12-7 win over Tennessee. The Giants haven't scored an offensive touchdown since Dart went down, managing six points against the Rams and only four field goals against the Titans, with Jameis Winston throwing for just 118 yards. Arizona is 1-2, but Jacoby Brissett has completed 70% of his passes for 652 yards, four touchdowns and one interception, and the Cardinals hung 30 points on San Francisco last week.

The market has moved hard toward Arizona. This line opened with New York as a 2.5-point favorite and has flipped to Cardinals -2.5. I'm on the same side. Losing Burns leaves a Giants defense with just one sack in three games without its best pass rusher, which should give Brissett time to keep feeding Michael Wilson (11 catches for 89 yards and a score in Santa Clara) and TE Trey McBride. LT Andrew Thomas (groin) also missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, which is a problem against a Cardinals front that sacked Justin Herbert three times in Week 1.

There are risks. Arizona has given up 31 and 36 points in back-to-back losses and is just 5-9 ATS after a loss since last season started. But with the Giants starting a backup quarterback and missing their top pass rusher, I trust Brissett and rookie RB Jeremiyah Love, who ran for 90 yards on 21 carries last week, to do enough on the road.

Pick and analysis from expert handicapper Luke Lindholm.

Don't forget to check out our Cardinals vs Giants pick on the total as well

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NFL Week 4 Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 over Denver Broncos (+100)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

The San Francisco 49ers will be trying to remain undefeated when they host the Denver Broncos in Week 4 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Returns are early, but San Francisco is arguably looking like the best team in football through three games. As such, my Broncos vs 49ers pick is on the home team to win and cover. The Niners defeated their first trio of opponents by a combined 48 points. Brock Purdy is playing at an MVP level and head coach Kyle Shanahan's squad finally has something close to a clean bill of health on the defensive side of the ball.

It’s hard to be convinced by a 2-1 Denver club even though it managed to “beat” the Rams this past Sunday night. And, yes, “beat” belongs in quotes. The Broncos were playing at home and did not have to deal with either defensive end Myles Garrett or wide receiver Puka Nacua, and they still needed significant help from the officials to survive 30-26 in a thriller that came down to the final play. It would have been over several minutes earlier if L.A. cornerback Josh Wallace had been correctly awarded a game-clinching interception instead of getting hit with an incorrect pass interference call. Denver’s only foray away from home so far this season resulted in a 31-10 loss at Kansas City, so I can’t see the visitors staying with a field goal on the road against what is currently the best team in the NFC.

Pick and analysis from expert handicapper Ricky Dimon.

Get more expert analysis in our Broncos vs 49ers predictions

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Detroit Lions -3.5 over Carolina Panthers (-110)

Odds available at BetMGM and Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Both 2-1, the Lions’ visit to Charlotte feels heavier than it would have in the recent past. In many ways the Panthers are clearly looking better, showing off an improved passing attack and more explosive offense in general. Through three weeks they are averaging 29.7 points and nearly 400 yards per game (392.7, to be exact). Bryce Young, although he still lacks solid, consistent protection from his front (they are 23rd in pressure-rate), is 1st in the NFL with 939 passing yards. For a fourth year QB who’s surely on his final “prove it" year, that’s one hell of a start.

Beneath the surface, Carolina still has some glaring issues. For starters, their backfield is very shallow with just Chuba Hubbard and AJ Dillon. Both are formidable complimentary backs; neither is meant to be the main event. Gaining just 97 total rushing yards per game, the Panthers choose to run at one of the lowest rates in the league (34.18%, 31st). Defensively, they’re the worst unit in the NFL against the run, allowing 5.7 yards per carry. On the bright side, they are getting to the opponent’s QB more often (sack-rate is 7.07%, 12th) and in general their pass-defense is above average (fifth in opponent yards per pass).

Failing to slow down their enemy’s run game could prove to be a massive issue on Sunday night. Detroit owns one of the most dangerous rushing attacks in the NFL thanks to Jahmyr Gibbs and an above-average run-blocking line. Gibbs has only had one notable performance so far, a 156-yard showing against the Saints, but Carolina will present the worst front-seven he’s seen this month. He already has six touchdowns in three games.

The Lions’ pass defense is their weakness. Opponents are completing 69.4% of their passes for 326 yards per game, with 9 TDs against the Motown team. Geno Smith waltzed into Ford Field and went 31 of 37 (83.8%) for a 129.8 rating. On the bright side, only Minnesota has earned more sacks through three games (12).

If you believe in the Panthers, it's because you think they'll play at their best in a primetime spot. The reality is, Jared Goff and many on this Lions’ roster have experienced plenty of nerve-racking national spotlight games over the last few seasons. Bryce Young has not, nor have many of his colleagues. We also think Carolina’s defensive woes are too large to ignore. Unless the Panthers’ front-seven can get to Goff early and often, which is unlikely if the Lions’ run-game is in-rhythm, the visitors can pull away.

Pick and analysis from pro NFL bettor Chris Farley.

Get NFL stats, trends and more in our full Lions vs Panthers predictions for Sunday Night Football

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