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Friday Night is a sports fans dream, as we’ve got 15 MLB games and Game 4 of the NBA Finals. We’re here for the MLB player props and we have plenty of angles to attack. Let’s dive into the action starting with Michael Lorenzen against the Diamondbacks.
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Michael Lorenzen (Tigers) over 17.5 outs (-121)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
No better way to start the slate than attacking the first game. The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to Detroit to take on the Tigers. Detroit is fresh off getting swept by the Philadelphia Phillies including a crushing defeat in the bottom of the 9th inning last night where they had the lead. That brings us to our favorite prop in this game, Michael Lorenzen to go at least six innings for the Tigers.
The Tigers had a bullpen game last night and used four arms that may not be available tonight. The day off Wednesday due to the air quality in Philadelphia helped Detroit after using another four arms on Tuesday but 0/3 starters for Detroit failed to reach the 5th inning in that series.
Lorenzen has been together a great start to his 2023 campaign with his career-low BB% and 3.21 ERA. Hitters jump at his pitches early in the count and that is just what we want when attacking his outs. He’s gone at least six innings in five of his last starts and has shown to have a long leash. He’s coming off a dominant performance against the Chicago White Sox where he pitched seven innings on only 85 pitches and allowed just two baserunners.
His opponent tonight in the Diamondbacks are no sloth. They are a top team against RHP but we’re getting this prop at playable odds and the Tigers decrepitly need a quality outing from their top pitcher with Eduardo Rodriguez sidelined. In the last two weeks against RHP, the Diamondbacks rank in the middle of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and wRC+.
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Marcus Semien (Rangers) over 1.5 hits + runs + rbi (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The books are laying a nice number here for us after Marcus Semien lost his 25-game hit streak two days ago against the St. Louis Cardinals. He’s been a cash cow for MLB player prop bettors but has a tough matchup tonight on paper. His counterpart will be Tyler Glasnow who is finally back for the Tampa Bay Rays. Glasnow has appeared in two games this season and seems to have not missed a beat. But, as we dive into the advanced metrics, it hasn’t all been pretty. His xERA is upwards of 7.42 and he has an xOBA of .285.
We’re not just targeting this prop because of the line which is usually set at 2.5 for Semien or 1.5 at unplayable odds, but it’s the past success against Glasnow. Semien has four hits in six at-bats with all four hits being extra-base hits. He’s cashed this prop in 47 of 61 games this season and an even better 27 of 31 on the road.
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