Best MLB player prop bets today 7/29: Verlander fights off the Mariners

Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) pitches in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
Photo of JutPicks

JutPicks

MLB · 1 week ago

Show Bio

NBA and MLB props specialist for Pickswise.

Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief writeups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!

I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 139 wins and 102 losses for a gain of +28.97 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite play for Friday.

Martin Perez (TEX) under 2.5 Earned Runs (-141)

Line available at Caesers Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Let’s back one of the most surprising pitchers this season in all of baseball. Martin Perez appeared in the first All-Star Game of his career and it was well deserved. He has an ERA of 2.59 which ranks 9th-best for qualifying pitchers. I tend to stay away from meaningless stats but Perez has an ERA of 1.5 during his 10 night starts this season and this game will be played under the bright lights in Los Angeles.

The Los Angeles Angels have struggled in all aspects this month. They have a record of 5-16 which is 2nd-worst in all of baseball behind the Washington Nationals. They’re hitting a league-low .199 during that span and an even worse .190 against left-handed pitching. Perez looked phenomenal in his last start. He pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 run. On the season, he’s under this prop in 13 of 19 starts.

Mike Trout is still sidelined for the Angels which bodes well for Perez. Trout has 4 career extra-base hits off Perez which includes an RBI double back in April when Perez allowed 3 runs to the Angels.

In 12 games against left-handed starters since June, the Angels have failed to score 3 runs in 11 of them! Look for Perez to continue to impress all of baseball during his career year.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels

Seattle Mariners under 1.5 runs – 1st 5 innings (-140)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Justin Verlander has been our most popular player to back during the season. After missing all of last season with Tommy John, Verlander has put on a show that nobody was expecting. He’s currently 2nd in the race to win the AL Cy Young award from a betting standpoint at +260. Tonight, he’ll face off against a familiar foe in the Seattle Mariners. This will be the 6th start against the Mariners this season. From a hitter’s standpoint, seeing an opposing pitcher multiple times in a season can be an advantage, but we’re not talking about any ordinary pitcher. This is future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander on the bump.

Verlander has been absolutely dominant in the first 5 innings this season. In 18 starts, he’s held opponents under 2 runs in 14 of them and that doesn’t include a game earlier this month against the Kansas City Royals when he allowed 1 run through 6, but the Astros made errors in the 4th inning to account an unearned run.

Even with the Mariners putting together a great month of July with a record of 17 wins and 5 losses, they’ve struggled against right-handed pitching. In July, they’re hitting .220 and an on-base percentage under .300; both bottom 10 during that span.

Verlander is showing no signs of slowing down. In his 1st start after the all-star break, ironically against the Seattle Mariners, Verlander pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 run. He’s held Seattle to under 2 runs in the first 5 innings in 4 of 5 starts this season and I see another magical 5 innings incoming from Verlander.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros

Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

BetMGM

$200

Get $200 in Free Bets & a PICKSWISE HAT!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline wager on any team

Win $200 in free bets and a FREE Pickswise hat

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$250

Bet One, Get One: FanDuel will match your first bet placed up to $250 in free bets

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Deposit at least $10 into your account

FanDuel will match your first bet up to $250 in Free Bets!

Must be 21+ in CO. First deposit of at least $10 required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.