Best MLB player prop bets today 10/1: Drew Smyly blown away by the Reds

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Drew Smyly
Photo of JutPicks



Show Bio

NBA and MLB props specialist for Pickswise. For JutPicks media enquiries, please email
Read more about JutPicks

Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief write-ups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!

I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 245 wins and 154 losses for a gain of +39.06 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite play for Saturday.

Lock in our MLB picks for each of today’s 16 games

Drew Smyly (CHC) under 5.5 K’s (-120)

Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

We backed Drew Smyly in his last start against the New York Mets, and he came out victorious. He pitched 5 innings and recorded 5 strikeouts. That was over 2 weeks ago. He was placed on the IL after that start due to shoulder fatigue and will be making his last start of the season today against the Cincinnati Reds. Smyly is in line to be a free agent this offseason, so he is playing for a new contract with the Chicago Cubs or his 7th team in 7 years.

The Reds have done a great job of finding ways to get on base against left-handed pitching in September. They’re walking at the 7th highest rate in the majors during that span at 9.8%. Smyly has struggled with his command all season long. He’s averaging close to 2 walks per start and could very well find himself on a pitch count today.

Smyly does pitch better at home with his 2.38 ERA compared to his 4.23 ERA away from Chicago, but this number is a strikeout too high. He’s under this line in 18 of 21 starts and 6 of 8 at home. Expect the Reds to drive up his pitch count and for Smyly to finish with 5 strikeouts or less.

Be sure to check out our Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds predictions

Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.

By signing up you agree to our terms and privacy policy