Best MLB player prop for Monday's MLB slate: Ellis to cage Blue Jays

Chris Ellis MLB player prop
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John Hyslop

MLB· 4 weeks ago

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You can't win if you don't bet. That's a fact. I've been betting games for over 20 years and writing about it for the past 10. If there's a game, there's an angle. We just have to find it.

People are still talking about the Chris Archer pick from yesterday and as brave as it was, we have to move on. I get that it’s tough to do after going into the belly of the beast like that and just stabbing a +130 win. I get it but today is a new day. On days like this I like to think of the old proverb that states, “every new day is an opportunity to win another plus money MLB player prop”. I’ve scoured the lines and done multiple mental simulations. There is one that’s just better than all the others.

On top of this article, you should definitely check out our experts’ picks on all of the MLB action today. It’s just a smart thing to do. Also, bets can be added to the card, so why not follow me on Twitter in case we get some last-second action? Once lineups are announced for some of these games, there is a chance for opportunity to knock.

Chris Ellis over 3.5 strikeouts (+120)

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.

MLB player prop prices can differ wildly so it’s best to know who has what. DraftKings is where I found 3.5 for +120, which turned out to be the best offer. FanDuel was close behind with 3.5 for +104 and BetMGM has yet to offer anything. This guy is priced to move tonight.

This one has the look and feel of the Archer move yesterday. There are so many unknowns about this one that forces the books into a low number. The thing is, Ellis is a strikeout guy. In his last 5 minor-league starts, he’s topped this number in 4 of them. The one time he didn’t, he still sat down 3 guys. He’s also stretched out as he’s thrown to 20+ batters in each of his last 5 minor-league starts. He’s ready.

Targeting the Blue Jays is less than ideal, since only one team (Houston) has struck out less than they have this season. Still, it’s not like they never strike out, and we only need 4 to get home. Matt Manning of the Detroit Tigers got 5 of them the other night and he never whiffs anyone. Matthew Boyd did the same thing yesterday and he hadn’t topped 3.5 in two straight starts. The point is, 3.5 is such a low bar and even though the Blue Jays don’t strike out much, Ellis should be able to get home. This is my favorite MLB player prop of the night.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles

Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB parlays and MLB prop bets tabs for more expert picks.

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