John Hyslop
MLB
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We’ve got 15 MLB games on the board today. For me, that means player props. Specifically, pitcher strikeout props. They’re fun, they’re exciting and you can get bets on numbers that make sense. What’s even more fun is actually watching the games you bet. We’ve got more than enough MLB on television today and it starts on MLB Network with the Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees at 1:05pm ET. They are going to carry us again at 4:05pm ET with either the Astros/Rangers or Twins/Indians depending on your market. After that, we’ve got some rivalry action on Fox with either the Cubs/Cardinals, Dodgers/Giants or Red Sox/Phillies at 7:15pm ET. If that wasn’t enough, the MLB Network is getting back into the fray at 10:07pm ET with the Oakland Athletics/Los Angeles Angels. All this action calls for action. Here are a couple of player props that I am rolling with today.
Don’t forget to check what our MLB analysts have backed with side and total picks for all 15 games today/tonight. As always, bets can be added to the card so why not follow me on Twitter in case we get some last-second action? It makes sense.
Bryse Wilson Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The only place I can find a line on this guy is at DraftKings but the price is definitely right. Hopefully the other books follow suit and give us this number at plus money. Wilson is definitely not a “strikeout guy” but 3.5 feels a bit insulting.
Wilson has been down in the minors for a couple of weeks but he made a spot start for the Braves when they played the Toronto Blue Jays on May 11. He went six innings in that game and struck out five. He is sporting a horrific strikeout percentage at 13.9 percent but there is reason to believe he could see some positive regression as he has never been that low in his career.
These bets always have to have opponent in mind and the Pittsburgh Pirates are a ripe target. Over the last two weeks only nine teams in MLB have struck out more than the Pirates. Mitch Keller, Will Craig and Bryan Reynolds are all 30 percent strikeout guys over that span and if Troy Stokes is in the lineup, he’s a likely victim as well. This is a very low bar for Wilson.
This is one of my favorite player props for today.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves
Spencer Howard Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing
© Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Spencer Howard is back from the minors and appears to be viewed as a starter from now on. He’s a strikeout artist in the making and it’s hard to imagine him having a 4.5 for plus money much longer. The issue tonight will be that he will likely not go very far into the game but the number is so low it likely won’t matter.
In a relief role this season, Howard is right at a 38 percent strikeout rate which is not sustainable. It’s amazing, but there is no reason to believe he will stay there. Still, if he can hang around the low 20s, we should be good. He has struck out eight in only 4.1 innings of work at the major league level, so betting on him getting to five or six tonight isn’t crazy. Especially at this price.
Just like every other bet, the opponent matters and at first glance it doesn’t look great. The Boston Red Sox are seventh in MLB in OPS over the last two weeks but they are also fifth-worst in strikeouts over that span. The Red Sox will be forced to bat their pitcher, which is ideal, and if Hunter Renfroe, Martin Gonzalez and Danny Santana are in the lineup, this one could happen pretty early in the game.
This is one of my favorite player props of the night.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies
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