Javan Shouey
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For the last 15 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and I’m more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Saturday’s MLB slate.
New York Mets first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds.
Patrick Corbin starts have been something to look forward to every 5 days. The highly paid left-hander has put together a nightmare of a season. Corbin has posted a 5-17 record with a 5.86 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. His advanced stats are an eyesore across the board as he ranks 5th percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. When on the road, Corbin has allowed an 8.83 ERA, .379 OBA and 2.11 WHIP in 53 IP. At night the southpaw has allowed a 7.73 ERA, .345 OBA and 1.96 WHIP in 73.1 IP. Against left-handed bats he allows a .328 OBA and .877 OPS, while he allows a .324 OBA and .911 OPS to right-handers.
Corbin is coming off back-to-back starts of allowing only 2 runs, but that is a noticeable outlier in his season-long game log. In the first 5 innings of his road starts this season Corbin has allowed 2, 6, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, 7, 5, 5, 2 and 6 runs. His last 2 starts against the Mets have resulted in 4 runs across 7 hits and 7 runs across 12 hits. New York has cooled off against left-handed pitching overall in the last 30 days but that hasn’t been the case at home. with their wRC+ still sitting at 110. Their lineup has the perfect balance of power and ability to hit for contact and Corbin should be faced with one tough at-bat after another. Pete Alonso is 13 for 34 lifetime against Corbin with 7 extra-base hits and 9 walks. Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte and Mark Canha have had success against Corbin as well.
The left-hander has an xBA of .309 or higher on 3 of his 4 pitches with the remaining pitch allowing a .250 xBA. He has allowed at least 1 home run in 5 consecutive starts and 12 of his last 14 starts overall. Look for the Mets to push 3 runs across the plate in the first 5 innings of this ballgame.
Noah Syndergaard (Phillies) over 3.5 strikeouts (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
Noah Syndergaard is clearly not the strikeout pitcher he once was. The now 30-year-old right-hander has seen his K% plummet from a 29.3% mark he set in 2016 as a member of the Mets. While there is no doubt his skills have diminished due to injuries and aging, Syndergaard is still a more than capable MLB starter and I find this line to be too cheap. When seeing 45 pitches or more this season Syndergaard is 12-6 to the over on this 3.5 line. This includes 4 or more strikeouts in 8 of his last 11 starts and 5 or more strikeouts in 7 of those appearances.
Based on his season average of pitches per strikeout recorded, we would need a shade under 82 pitches in an average matchup. Syndergaard has thrown 87 pitches per start as a member of the Phillies. This is also an above-average matchup for Syndergaard in my eyes as this Giants offense is one I love to pick on. Yesterday’s game against Kyle Gibson was the first time the Giants had scored more than 3 earned runs off a right-handed starter in their last 13 tries. They have scored 3 or fewer earned runs in 20 of their last 25 matchups against a righty starter overall. Since August 15, San Francisco has the 3rd-highest strikeout rate at 25.6% against right-handers behind only the Pirates and the Angels. During that span they rank 25th in wOBA, 25th in OPS, 20th in ISO and have a wRC+ of only 75.
Of the last 14 right-handed starters to face the Giants, 9 have exceeded this line including Matt Manning with 8, Zac Gallen with 12 and Joe Musgrove with 11. Ryan Feltner, Zach Thompson and Zach Davies also cleared this line with 5 or more strikeouts each. Syndergaard does have an above-average chase rate and the Giants offense has the 7th-lowest chase contact rate this season. He doesn’t walk many batters or get hit hard and I don’t expect a lot of traffic on the basepaths given the offensive struggles of San Francisco. While his road ERA is higher than at home, Oracle Park is a fantastic pitcher’s park and Syndergaard does see his K/IP increase to 0.87 from 0.68 at home. The Phillies bullpen isn’t in need of a complete game or anything but after receiving 5 outs from Gibson yesterday, 6 innings should be in line for Thor. I think this is a cheap price for a pitcher who has found different ways to succeed post-injuries.
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