Connor Grootenhuis
MLB
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Today is a funky day of baseball as we have a full slate of games including two double-headers and one game being resumed in the bottom of the fourth inning. With all of this action, there are plenty of player props out there. I have two in mind that I think are solid options, and I will share those here. Before we get to these, make sure you check out our full game previews and picks if you’re looking to bet any game sides or totals.
Brady Singer over 5.5 strikeouts (+100)
Line available at time of publishing at DraftKings
Kansas City’s Brady Singer will face the Rays today, and their offense is coming back down to earth after a scorching hot two-week stretch. Tampa Bay has scored just three total runs in the first two games of this series, and they have been striking out often. Kansas City starter Brad Keller struck out seven in 7.0 innings on Tuesday, and Mike Minor struck out nine in just 5.0 innings last night.
Singer has pretty a middle-of-the-road strikeout rate, but he is averaging about a strikeout per inning with 46 punch outs in 45.0 innings this season. If he can get through 5.0 innings, I like our chances with this over. Singer has gone at least 5.0 innings six times this season and reached six strikeouts in five of those outings, including each of his last two. The Rays lead the league in strikeouts over the last week with 76 in seven games, so Singer could be catching them at the right time.
The Rays’ offense appears to be on a bit of a downturn this week, and Keller and Minor had no problem in the first two games. That trend should continue for Singer.
Carlos Martinez under 3.5 strikeouts (+105)
Line available at time of publishing at DraftKings
Carlos Martinez of St Louis was once a strikeout pitcher, but those days are fading. His strikeout rate was 26.5 in 2019, but fell to 16.3 in 2020. Now it is all the way down at 12.1 so far this season, and that is in the bottom one percent of the league according to Baseball Savant. In addition, his whiff rate is in the bottom four percent and his chase rate is in the 23rd percentile of MLB pitchers this season.
Martinez has adopted more of a pitch-to-contact approach, and the results have been mixed. His season-high for strikeouts on the year is five, and that was back on April 16. He has not reached four strikeouts in any of his three May starts, and he will face a Diamondbacks team that is a much better hitting team at home. Arizona is hitting .267 at home compared to just .208 on the road, so they will not be an easy out.
The Diamondbacks are going through a tough losing streak, but perhaps facing a contact pitcher like Martinez is exactly what they need to get their bats going. Martinez has not been missing many bats this season, and there is good value with the plus-money on the under here.
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