Andrew Ortenberg
MLB
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MLB is back in full swing, and we’ve got another great slate on Wednesday. We’ve had a lot of success with our MLB handicapping lately, including cashing our mega parlay last week at nearly 17/1 odds, and we’re looking for more big wins here. Right now we’re talking player props, and I’ve got two which I really like that I’m going to discuss here. One of them centers on a big game from Zack Wheeler. Don’t forget to check what our MLB analysts have backed with side and total picks for all 13 games tonight.
Zack Wheeler over 5.5 Ks (+102)
Line available at publishing at FanDuel
I think Wheeler is being underestimated here. His strikeout rate was down just a touch in 2020, but that was in a shortened season and small sample size. I think oddsmakers have overreacted a bit, and in his last full season in 2019 he had more than a strikeout per inning.
He has 14 strikeouts in only 11 and 2/3 innings so far in 2021, and as long as he goes six here I think we’ll cash this over. This Mets lineup isn’t particularly intimidating, so I think he’ll have no trouble going six frames. This is a revenge game for Wheeler against his old team, so you know he’ll be bringing his best effort.
All 11 and 2/3 innings of his work this season have come against the Braves, who possess a much tougher lineup than the Mets do.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets.
Zach Plesac under 6.5 Ks (-174)
Line available at publishing at FanDuel
I also like the under here on Plesac, even though we have to lay some significant juice. Through his first two starts Plesac has 10 total strikeouts in 13 innings. He didn’t top six in either of those games despite pitching fairly deep into them.
Those first two starts were also both against the Tigers, who strike out a lot and have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Plesac will have a much tougher task here against a very solid White Sox lineup. In 184 career big league innings Plesac has 155 strikeouts, so it’s not his speciality.
Given his track record, I’m not sure how you could expect him to reach seven punch-outs here. He’s only racked up at least seven strikeouts in six of his 31 career MLB starts, so I’m not too worried about laying -174.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox.
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