Caleb Wilfinger
Show Bio
The annual Army-Navy game is always one of the biggest spectacles in college football year in and year out. Being a standalone game on Saturday, there are plenty of eyes on this matchup and for good reason. Even though there aren’t traditionally many points scored between these teams, the games are traditionally close and entertaining.
Will Army win this year’s installment or can Navy win as an outright underdog? Let’s get into it.
Here is my Army vs Navy Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s matchup, which will be televised starting at 3:00 pm ET on CBS. Also, be sure to check out our full Army vs Navy predictions.
Army -2.5 (-110)
Over 27 (-112)
Bryson Daily to score a touchdown (+225)
Same Game Parlay odds: +1085
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as Army covering the spread and the game going over correlates with Bryson Daily to score a touchdown.
Army -2.5 (-110)
The Black Knights are the much better offense in this game, as Army checks in at 67th in rushing success rate, about average among all FBS teams. They should see success against a Navy defense that has struggled mightily to stop anyone, ranking 116th in rushing success rate allowed and outside the top 100 in EPA per dropback (CFB-Graphs). Even though Army has a slightly below average passing offense (86th in EPA per pass), the Black Knights are still far better than the Midshipmen, who rank dead lass in EPA per pass among all FBS teams this season. Given that Army is playing some of its best football of the season from a metrics perspective over the last 5 weeks, I like the Black Knights to win a close one for their second straight victory in this rivalry. I’ll be taking Army at under a field goal
Over 27 (-110)
Despite the fact that this series has gone under the closing line total in the last 16 meetings, I’m actually going to fade this very profitable trend and take the over in this one. Both teams should keep the ball on the ground in this one, and that’s to be expected. However, I do like the fact that I’m getting a 6-point adjustment to this total from where it was a season ago. This is a game where the total typically closes in the mid 30s and now we’re seeing a 27 number that is approaching Iowa football levels of absurdity. At the end of the day, neither defense is all that good. So while I expect slow, methodical drives to be largely what defines the game on Saturday, we should see a couple of explosive plays that lead to touchdown drives. There’s also the matter of turnovers and poor special teams play, which has defined some of the recent games between the Armed Forces. It’s terrifying, but I’m taking the over.
Bryson Daily to score a touchdown (+225)
Army isn’t like most college football teams in that the quarterback is far more productive at running the football than the running back. In fact, Bryson Daily has the ball in his hands on nearly every play when the Black Knights are on offense. He has hardly thrown the ball over the course of the last month, averaging just under 7 passes per game in Army’s last 5 games. But it’s on the ground where Daily has done a tremendous amount of damage, putting up 88 carries and 4 touchdowns over the last month of the season. Therefore, his price to find the end zone once again on Saturday is simply too high given that Navy is outside the top 100 in rushing success rate allowed on defense. Let’s get to the window with Daily.
