College Football Bowl Games parlay at mega +626 odds for Tuesday, 12/26: UNLV can keep up with Kansas

Following a wild college football regular season, we’ve arrived at the most wonderful time of the year. Bowl season is here and with it comes plenty of games for college football fans to wager on over the course of the next few weeks. We’ve got a trio of games on tap on Tuesday featuring both Power 5 and Group of 5 teams alike. These games might not be on everyone’s radar, but we can still win on them!

You can read all our college football predictions on Tuesday’s games, but without any further ado, here’s my 2-leg NCAAF parlay with a potential payout of +626 odds. Let’s take a look at each of the legs.

Bowling Green ML (+142)

Kansas to win by 1-13 points (+200)

NCAAF parlay odds: +626

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing

Bowling Green Falcons ML over Minnesota Gophers (+142)

The Quick Lane Bowl features a couple of teams that win with defense. Bowling Green has allowed 24 points per game, and the Falcons enter the bowl game riding a solid second-half surge in which they won 5 of their final 6 games. Unlike most programs, Bowling Green hasn’t been too impacted by the transfer portal and they actually rank higher than Minnesota in most statistical categories already. One could argue that the Falcons did this against a weaker schedule, but the Big 10 West hasn’t exactly been the pinnacle of football this season, and the Gophers still didn’t deliver.

This Minnesota team is trending in the wrong direction. After all, the Gophers closed the season on a 4-game losing streak, and they will be playing the bowl game with a 3rd-string quarterback. Minnesota’s offense can be described as “3 yards and a cloud of dust”, and given the circumstances at quarterback, we can infer that the Falcons will likely stack the box and force PJ Fleck’s team to beat them through the air consistently. The Gophers are also missing their defensive coordinator, who left for Michigan State earlier this month. I think the wrong team is favored, and we’ve got a prime spot for a small conference upset over a big conference foe. Given that we’re getting a total under 40, this game ought to be close and low-scoring as well. That information makes me all the happier to take a shot on the money line with Bowling Green.

Read our full Bowling Green Falcons vs Minnesota Golden Gophers predictions

Kansas Jayhawks to win by 1-13 points over UNLV Rebels (+200)

Both of these teams enter this game off some of their best seasons in years. The UNLV Rebels had a campaign for the ages, greatly exceeding all preseason expectations on their way to a 9-4 record and an appearance in the Mountain West title game. The Rebels’ go-go offense is extremely effective, while they don’t do much to stop anyone defensively. That makes for a fun team! On the other side, head coach Lance Leipold continued to bring the Kansas program closer to national prominence with his innovative offense and the way he maximizes the most with the talent he has on this roster. Even after losing star offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to Penn State, Kansas went out and got Jeff Grimes to be the new offensive coordinator, and it was confirmed that he’ll have at least some input in the game plan for this matchup. That bodes well for the Jayhawks offensively.

Both teams can be expected to implement game plans that will make the opposing defensive coordinators lose sleep in preparation for what should be a high-scoring affair. These are innovative offenses that use heavy rush and a large dose of pre-snap motion, making them extremely difficult for college defensive players to prepare for. According to CFB-Graphs, UNLV is a top-10 team in EPA per rush on offense, while Kansas is 98th defensively in EPA per rush. The same holds true in the passing game, as the Jayhawks are 12th in EPA per pass while the Rebels are outside the top 100 in defensive pass EPA. I certainly lean toward Kansas in the game, especially since I know I’m getting the better coach in Leipold. However, I expect both teams to score 30+ points and I can certainly see UNLV keeping this one within single digits given how poor Kansas’ defense is. Let’s get creative with this win-margin wager.

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