Caleb Wilfinger
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On paper this looks like the biggest mismatch of championship weekend. The Iowa Hawkeyes are certainly worse than their 10-2 record, while Michigan is coming off a couple of massive Big Ten victories against Penn State and Ohio State. Will the Wolverines keep rolling or are they primed for a letdown?
Here is my Iowa vs Michigan Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s matchup, which will be televised starting at 8:00 pm ET on FOX. Also be sure to check out our full Michigan vs Iowa predictions.
Iowa +22.5 (-110)
Under 3.5 (-110)
Blake Corum to record 2+ touchdowns (+130)
Same Game Parlay odds: +739
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can juice up the odds with legs that don’t correlate on paper. That is the case here, as we’re backing Iowa to cover while also targeting Blake Corum to score 2+ touchdowns.
Iowa Hawkeyes +22.5 (-110)
This is the kind of spread you don’t see very often in a Power 5 conference championship game, but it makes sense when looking at these teams. It’s no secret that Iowa’s offense has been non-existent this season, ranking dead last in yards per game (246.3) and averaging just 14 points per game over the last 5 games. And while Michigan is the far superior side on paper, I believe that Iowa will be able to keep things within 22 points thanks to its terrific defense that is 3rd in scoring defense, 4th in defensive passing efficiency and so on. There’s also the matter of Michigan’s conservative approach in big games, and the Wolverines should have no reason to roll out many risky plays considering a 2-possession lead likely gets the job done against this Iowa offense.
Michigan ranks 12th in time of possession in the country teams despite ranking 121st in plays per game this season. How exactly does that work? Well, the Wolverines run game is incredibly efficient and they have also been phenomenal at limiting turnovers. Given what they’ll face on the other side, this is a perfect game to lean on that slow-and-steady approach for a stress-free victory en route to a playoff appearance. I don’t expect Michigan to get too flashy on offense and it’s hard to go against an Iowa defense that should be able to make a few stops when it counts. Let’s go with the Hawkeyes to keep this one within 3 touchdowns.
Under 35.5 (-110)
This Iowa team has to be one of the most confounding 10-win teams we’ve ever seen. Given the Hawkeyes defense-first approach and terrible offense, this has created the lowest total for a conference title game ever, and for good reason. In fact, nine of Iowa’s 12 regular season contests went under 35 combined points, including the last 7 straight. In a matchup of a run-first Michigan offense against a non-existent offense paired with a couple of elite defenses, it’s hard to stay away from the under.
The Hawkeyes are 4th in scoring defense, 4th in defensive passing efficiency and 3rd in red-zone defense, while Michigan ranks top 10 in practically every major defensive category you can think of. That goes for scoring defense, yards per game allowed, passing defense, rush defense, sacks, and so on. Furthermore, Iowa ranks dead last in the nation with only 246.3 yards per game on offense. Let’s back the under and hold our nose in this championship game.
We have NCAAF picks for all the biggest games this week
Blake Corum to record 2+ touchdowns (+130)
The Wolverines offense has been extremely conservative in recent weeks, a product of an offensive line that is much worse in pass blocking than it has been in previous years. However, one constant in the Michigan offense has been the continued production of Blake Corum. It’s no surprise that as the calendar turned to November, Corum became the focal point of the offense, as the top Wolverines’ running back has racked up at least 22 carries in each of the last 3 weeks. Corum has also seen his red zone touches increase as the games have gotten bigger, and it’s led to a whopping 9 rushing touchdowns over the last 4 weeks, including at least 2 in each game. I don’t expect much scoring from Iowa, but Michigan should still be able to put up at least 24 points in this one, giving us a decent chance of cashing this plus-money prop on Corum to record 2 touchdowns once again.
Check out all of my Week 14 NCAAF best bets
