Sam Avellone
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The 2023 college football regular season flew by, but there is one more chance to cash a mega parlay before the start of bowl season. Here are some of my favorite picks of the weekend, combined into one parlay for an increased payout.
SMU ML (+138)
Texas -14.5 (-112)
Alabama vs Georgia alternate spread over 59.5 (+144)
NCAAF mega parlay odds: +999
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing
SMU Mustangs ML over Tulane Green Wave
The Mustangs have plenty of talent surrounding the quarterback position. Preston Stone will be missed, but Kevin Jennings should have ample time in the pocket playing behind a stout offensive line with playmakers all around him. The Mustangs have been just as good defensively as they have been offensively, ranking in the top 10 in PPA per play and success rate allowed since Week 8. Furthermore, they finish drives well defensively, yielding less than 3.5 points per scoring opportunity in non-garbage time over the last 6 weeks.
Tulane’s offensive line leaves a bit to be desired, so SMU should have success limiting running back Makhi Hughes, which would put an immense amount of pressure on a short-handed passing attack. Tulane’s second-leading receiver Lawrence Keys III will miss this game due to injury, and third-leading receiver Jha’Quan Jackson could miss the game too. It’s not going to be easy, but this is a winnable game for SMU despite Stone’s injury.
Texas Longhorns -14.5 over Oklahoma State
The Longhorns have the best scoring defense in the Big 12, as they allow just 18.1 points per game against their conference opponents. A lot of that success is due to an excellent run defense that starts with a defensive line that is in the top 5 nationally in power success and line yards in non-garbage time since Week 8. The Longhorns also carry a top-20 grade in stuff rate, PPA per rush, rush success and explosive rushes allowed in the last 6 weeks – which makes me think they will keep Ollie Gordon under control like they did Kansas State’s top-15 rushing attack earlier this season.
Texas can struggle from play to play offensively, but the Cowboys have been poor on the defensive side. I do not have much faith in Oklahoma State’s ability to limit Texas’s star-studded offense for 4 quarters given the Cowboys have yielded the second-most scoring opportunities in the last 6 weeks and carry a bottom-40 touchdown rate on the season as a whole.
Check out our expert’s college football best bets for conference championship weekend
Alabama vs Georgia alternate spread over 59.5
This could be a back-and-forth matchup with plenty of points, and I see a path to both teams scoring at least 30. Neither defense has been as good recently as their reputations would make you think, as Georgia and Alabama both find themselves outside the top 40 in PPA per play and success rate allowed since Week 8. The Bulldogs’ run defense is a bit of a concern, which is an area the Alabama offense can exploit with 2 talented running backs and a mobile quarterback in Jalen Milroe.
In fact, Georgia’s defense is outside the top 120 in rush success and PPA per rush since the end of October. In a matchup between two of the nation’s best quarterbacks going against what could be slightly overvalued defenses, plenty of points may be in store in the SEC Championship – which would make his heavyweight battle that much more exciting.
