Caleb Wilfinger
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After a long and eventful college football regular season, the most wonderful time of the year is here. Bowl season has arrived and with it comes a myriad of interesting games between teams that we don’t often see paired up against each other in a neutral site setting. This year’s installment of the Famous Toastery Bowl features a resurgent Old Dominion team against a Western Kentucky side that is limping into the postseason.
Will the Hilltoppers finish off 2023 with a much-needed victory or can the Monarchs wrap up a successful 2023 campaign with a flourish? Let’s get into it.
Here is my Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s matchup, which will be televised starting at 2:30 pm ET on ESPN. Also, be sure to check out our full Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion predictions.
Old Dominion -3.5 (-110)
Over 55.5 (+140)
NCAAF Same Game Parlay odds: +358
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you don’t have to correlate the plays and your odds will increase as a result. That is some of the plan here, as the game going over doesn’t necessarily correlate with Old Dominion winning by a margin, but it increases our odds with just 2 legs.
Old Dominion Monarchs -3.5 over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-110)
These are a couple of teams trending in completely different directions heading into bowl season, and I have no issues backing the ascending team in Old Dominion. Western Kentucky was expected to be a serious contender in Conference USA and that simply didn’t materialize this season, as Tyson Helton’s team finished with a 7-5 record and did not beat a single quality team on their schedule. Conversely, all Old Dominion did was prove me wrong in a big way down the stretch, winning their final 2 games in dramatic fashion to qualify for a bowl game with a 6-6 record. The Monarchs were able to fight through a tough Sun Belt Conference this fall and head coach Ricky Rahne will certainly have this team believing that they can finish with a winning season entering this game.
Western Kentucky is in disarray heading into this matchup, with quarterback Austin Reed in the transfer portal, along with 3 starting offensive lineman and 4 starters on defense. In fact, the Hilltoppers are down to a 3rd-string quarterback, as their backup QB is in the transfer portal as well and likely won’t play in this one either. The Hilltoppers only had 1 win over a bowl team this season and I can’t imagine backing a team that can’t run the ball (122nd in EPA per rush) and can’t stop the run (106th in opponent rush success rate) in a game where we’re unsure of the quarterback situation for WKU. Let’s take the Monarchs to win and cover on Monday.
Over 55.5 (+140)
This is not a game where I’d want to back an under. In fact, I have no problem not only eschewing the posted total, but going for an alternate over at 55.5 well into plus-money odds. Most importantly, Old Dominion’s offense will be intact and going against an awful Western Kentucky defense that is already down a handful of key players. There are clear routes to success against a Hilltoppers front that is outside the top 100 in opponent rushing success rate and EPA per rush. I also expect the scoring to continue throughout the game and for Western Kentucky to get its points against a middling Old Dominion pass defense. This game should feature explosive plays and nothing in the forecast suggests that we shouldn’t see a high-scoring football game on Monday.
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