Phil Agius
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It’s go big or go home time in the CONCACAF Gold Cup with tournament favorite Mexico taking on Canada in the second semi-final on Thursday night (10pm ET).
Mexico, the defending champion and 11-time Gold Cup winner, made a steady start to its defense with a goalless tie against Trinidad & Tobago but has not looked back since, beating Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras without allowing a single goal.
Canada’s only group defeat was by 1-0 to the United States, and a solid 2-0 quarter-final win over Costa Rica has given the Canadians this shot at an upset as they bid to repeat their surprise success in the 2000 Gold Cup tournament.
Mexico was a +100 favorite to win the tournament when we made them our main pick at the outset and there’s no reason to jump off the bandwagon at this stage.
We’ve come up with a same game parlay for the last-four showdown that pays over 8/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook! Let’s look at the plays.
Mexico -1 (+175)
Rogelio Funes Mori first goalscorer (+350)
Parlay odds: +845
Let’s take a look at each leg and explain the reasoning.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Mexico vs Canada
Mexico -1 (+175)
Mexico has featured in 5 of the last 7 CONCACAF Gold Cup finals and has a great chance to make that 6 from 8.
El Tri got off to a slow start with that goalless tie against Trinidad at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, and there were genuine concerns about their goalscoring ability, with Raul Jimenez injured before the tournament and Hirving Lozano knocked out of the competition in that match.
However, the Gold Cup favorites have not looked back since, scoring 7 goals in their next 3 games, and they are still yet to concede a goal in the tournament.
Not only should they win, but taking Mexico on the spread to win by at least two goals pushes up the odds on this parlay — and they might need to score only twice to do it.
Canada opened with easy 4-1 wins over Martinique and Haiti, but conceded a goal in each of their three group games and is facing the best offense and defense it has met in the competition tonight.
Coach John Herdman will be forced into making at least two changes to his lineup for the semi-final, with Vancouver Whitecaps striker Lucas Cavallini and ever-present captain and defender Steven Vittoria both suspended after receiving yellow cards against Costa Rica.
Mexico has looked more of a force as the tournament has gone on and with their creative midfielders providing the spark, they can extend their impressive record of 12-0-8 record in the last 20 head-to-head meetings with Canada. A repeat of their 3-1 2019 group-stage win, or a simple 2-0 success look likely outcomes.
Find out our best bets for both CONCACAF Gold Cup semi-final games on Thursday!
Rogelio Funes Mori first goalscorer (+350)
Mexico’s goalscoring concerns seem to be over and Rogelio Funes Mori has established himself as the focal point of their offense.
The Monterrey striker has three goals in the tournament and scored the first goal of the game in the 3-0 win over Guatemala and the quarter-final win against Honduras. In fact, he scored the first goal against Honduras twice, as his 26th-minute effort was ruled offside before he got the one that counted soon after.
Funes Mori will have his eye on the top-scorer award — Qatar’s Almoez Ali leads with four after the quarter-finals — and has the most creative midfield unit in the competition to provide him with chances.
Adding him to our parlay makes plenty of sense.
Make sure you read our same game parlay for Qatar vs USA (+1071 odds!)
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