Daily public money update: Bettors feeling the Heat
We’ve got some nice NBA, NHL, and college hoops action on Tuesday. We’ve seen many of the top national NBA teams become staples of this column, but today’s leading side isn’t one of the usual heavyweights. The top public teams have had a lot of success over the past week, will recreational bettors be so lucky again today? Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books.
NBA: Miami Heat -3.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks
The big NBA side the public is gravitating toward on Tuesday is the Miami Heat home to the Atlanta Hawks. 88 percent of the bets and 91 percent of the money are laying the points with Miami. They might be betting the Heat, but this is likely more a fade of the Hawks than anything else.
Atlanta has been an abject disaster, and they just fired their head coach Lloyd Pierce due to the recent struggles. The Hawks are just 4-11 in their last 15 games, and they’re pretty banged up at the moment. Miami just won by double digits when these teams played over the weekend. Firing Pierce reeked of desperation, and we agree with the public that it’s not going to solve much.
NBA: Los Angeles Clippers @ Boston Celtics over 222.5
We often see the public pounding overs in these nationally televised games, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing with the first half of this TNT doubleheader on Tuesday. 79 percent of the bets and 88 percent of the money are on the over 222.5 here. Bettors saw these teams combine for 234 points in their first meeting not too long ago, and clearly think this total is a bit low.
This line has also moved a couple of points up, which might suggest there’s been some well-respected sharp money on the over as well. We like the chances of a high-scoring game as well here, and when we published our piece late last night the total was still at 220. It pays to check Pickswise frequently. In fact, we like this over so much that it’s our NBA ‘best bet’ of the day.
NHL: New York Islanders (-148) @ New Jersey Devils
Looking at the hockey board now, the public is moving toward the Islanders in this East Coast showdown. 82 percent of the bets and 91 percent of the money are on New York over New Jersey on the money line. The Islanders have won three of their past four games, and are coming off a shutout victory over Pittsburgh.
The Devils on the other hand are just 1-5 in their last six games, with the only win in that span coming by just one goal in overtime against a last-place Sabres team. For those reasons and more, we’re taking the Islanders on Tuesday as well.
CBB: Marquette -5.5 @ DePaul
Pivoting to college basketball now, we’ve got a pretty big slate with a couple of big public sides. 85 percent of the bets and 81 percent of the money are laying the points with Marquette in this Big East showdown. DePaul won outright at Marquette in the first meeting between these teams, but that clearly isn’t enough to scare off most bettors.
There were a few fluky things from that game, including the fact that Marquette only shot 35 percent of the field, which isn’t likely to happen again. Marquette is 4-2 against the spread in their last six, DePaul is just 2-4 ATS in their last six, and the Blue Demons only have four wins on the season. We like Marquette as well.
CBB: Arkansas -6.5 @ South Carolina
The heaviest public side of the college basketball slate is in the SEC. 92 percent of the bets and a whopping 96 percent of the money are on the Razorbacks in this one. South Carolina is tops in the conference in forcing turnovers, but Arkansas takes care of the ball really well, neutralizing the one advantage the Gamecocks might’ve had in this game.
South Carolina needs to force turnovers, because their defense is terrible at protecting the rim and beyond the arc. The Razorbacks have won six straight games, and since they’re first in the SEC in defensive rebounding rate, they also cancel out South Carolina’s other main strength which is their offensive rebounding. This hardly ever happens, but we’re going with the public across the board here.