Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got some nice NBA, NHL, and college hoops action on Tuesday. Yesterday’s big public side was the Nets over the Kings, and Brooklyn delivered. Will recreational bettors be so lucky again today? Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books.
NBA: Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 vs. Toronto Raptors
The most heavily bet side of the afternoon NBA slate is the Bucks, with 73 percent of the tickets and a whopping 95 percent of the money on Milwaukee -5.5 against the Raptors. That dramatic gap between those two numbers suggests there have been some truly massive bets on the Bucks in this rematch of the Eastern Conference Finals from two years ago.
Unfortunately for the Raptors, they don’t have Kawhi Leonard anymore to bail them out. It’s a bit interesting to see the public pile on to the Bucks considering they’ve lost three in a row and just fell to the Thunder as double digit favorites. Given how they’ve played recently, we think this number is a bit inflated and we’re fading the public to roll with the Raptors.
CBB: Missouri Tigers -3.5 @ Georgia Bulldogs
Pivoting to the college basketball slate, bettors are pounding Missouri with 75 percent of the bets and 83 percent of the money coming in on the Tigers laying 3.5 points. The public likely saw that Missouri was a ranked team playing a middling Georgia team and only laying 3.5, and that was all they needed to see.
But as people who have been closely following college hoops know, Missouri has been fraudulent. They shot up the rankings by beating a bunch of bad teams, but they only rank 42nd nationally according to Kenpom. This is another spot where we think there’s value fading the public.
NHL: Washington Capitals @ Pittsburgh Penguins over 6.5 goals
Looking at the hockey board now, there’s a total that is being hammered like no other NHL play on Tuesday. 75 percent of the bets and 91 percent of the money are on the over 6.5 in this game between the Penguins and Capitals. These teams just played the other night in a game that ended 6-3, so everyone is hoping for and expecting another shootout here.
Nine of Pittsburgh’s 13 games this season have seen at least seven goals scored, and it’s been 10 of 13 for the Caps. Neither of these teams play much defense, so we’re riding the over here as well.
NBA: Denver Nuggets @ Boston Celtics over 221.5
The big NBA total play of the day seems to be the over in this Nuggets/Celtics game, with 92 percent of both the bets and money expecting a shootout. The Celtics and Nuggets are two of the league’s better teams in terms of scoring defense, so it’s interesting to see the public gravitate toward the over here.
That being said, Boston is still without Marcus Smart, which really hurts them on the defensive end. Their defense also plays to the level of their competition, and struggles against teams like Denver with a lot of offensive firepower. We think this one will get into the 220s at least as well.
CBB: Florida Gators @ Arkansas Razorbacks over 150.5
It’s interesting to see so many people flocking to bet a college basketball total. 83 percent of the bets and 95 percent of the money are on the over here in this SEC matchup. Both of these teams like to get out and run, particularly the Razorbacks, and there’s a good chance we see a very fast-paced game here.
Florida has been making a clear effort to push the pace on offense more than they did last year, and the over is 9-6 in their games this season. Arkansas is also playing even faster in conference play than they were early in the year, which we don’t think oddsmakers have quite adjusted for, so we’re backing the over here too.
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