Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The last game of the Divisional Round is reserved for the best matchup: the Dallas Cowboys (+4) against the San Francisco 49ers. This game features the two best defenses remaining in the playoffs and in turn, the lowest total of the weekend (46.5). Brock Purdy is on a magical run to end his rookie season and has Kyle Shanahan fully believing in his capabilities. Dak Prescott is coming off a road playoff victory against the GOAT himself (Tom Brady), where he did not turn the ball over once.
I believe the favorites win in all 3 prior games this weekend. And then there is this one. The public is on Dallas and for many reasons. They were the last game of WC weekend, so the win is fresh in their minds. They are an underdog this week and the public loves dogs. Lastly, they are “America’s team”. The line opened at SF -3.5 and has settled at SF-4, still over that magical 3 number we all covet. I have ONE upset this weekend and it’s the Cowboys over the 49ers.
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Brock Purdy under 239.5 passing yards (-120)
Line available at BetMGM at the time of publishing.
This is a repeat of last week, but against a much different defense. Purdy has greatly exceeded expectations since starting in Week 14. He’s looked anywhere from efficient to elite against the likes of Seattle x2, Arizona, Las Vegas, Washington and Tampa Bay. He’s hit this number twice in the last 7 games, with the only overs coming against two teams ranked in the bottom 16 in opponent passing yards per game (LV and SEA). Last week, Purdy threw for a career-high 332 yards, but what is most telling is that 55% of those yards came on yards after catch and 22% came on one catch and run from Deebo Samuel.
The Cowboys rank 8th overall in opponent passing yards per game and is graded as the 8th-best tackling team in the NFL according to PFF. Shanahan is a genius, but luckily Dallas DC Dan Quinn is very familiar with his approach to games and scheming players open to make Purdy comfortable. This number is Purdy’s highest total of the season against his best opponent to date. 1U.
Be sure to check out our full Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers predictions
TY Hilton over 25.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Hilton has carved out a role on this Cowboys offense these last 4 weeks. He’s seen 4+ targets in 3 straight games and hit this line in 2 of 4. Over the last 2, he’s averaged 37% of the snaps and 4 targets in each of those games. As good as the 49ers’ defense is, they’re ranked 30th in DVOA against WR3s, allowing 4.6 targets and 47 yards receiving to that spot. Jimmie Ward is the slot cornerback for the 49ers and he’s allowed this line in 11/12 games this season; yes, that stat is correct. He’s allowing an 81% reception rate on all targets and 7.7 yards per catch.
This is a matchup I expect Dallas to exploit on passing downs and we could see Hilton in for a big game if the Cowboys want to pull off an upset. I doubt we see alt-lines on Hilton, but I will keep an eye out. 1U
Brandon Aiyuk over 3.5 receptions (-145)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Make sure you cover your eyes; this is a lot of chalk. Aiyuk averages 4.3 receptions over the last 10 games and 4.5 per game on the season, so the line is not out of the ordinary. He only finished with 3 receptions last week but ran the most routes on the team even though Deebo stole the show with his 74-yard reception. The 49ers’ WR1 will draw Trevon Diggs in coverage and despite his high-profile name, he’s had mixed results this season. He’s given up this line in 4 of the last 6 games, with the unders going against Sam Howell and Josh Dobbs.
While I do think Purdy has his struggles this week, Aiyuk should see an uptick in targets over last week as Dallas will make it more difficult to get it done on the ground than Seattle did. I expect at least 1-2 plays dialed up to get Aiyuk the ball early in his route (screen/slant) and take attention off Deebo. Once we have that floor in place, this line shouldn’t be an issue to hit. 1U
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Cowboys vs 49ers anytime touchdown scorer best bets
TY Hilton +600
Elijah Mitchell +320
Brandon Aiyuk+210
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