We’re halfway through the work week and are rewarded with a full 15-game slate in the MLB. Action begins early with a pair of 12:10 pm ET pitches in Tampa Bay and Miami and continues all day until a final first pitch at 9:45 pm ET between the Padres and Giants. Today’s a special day, because although I only have 2 best bets, I have 5 units combined on both plays.
Let’s get into my MLB best bets for Wednesday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (-110) over Colorado Rockies
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Nobody freak out, but Andrew Abbott is pitching today. Cincinnati’s #10 prospect made his debut earlier this month and threw a 1-hitter against the Brewers. He followed that up with 5.2 scoreless innings against the Cardinals and one-upped that performance with 6.0 shutout innings against the Astros. So, yes, his ERA sits at a whopping 0.00 after 3 starts. And by no means was this a soft launch into his big league career because the Cardinals and Astros have exceptional lineups that can do damage from the leadoff hitter to the 9-spot. The Virginia alum has a solid fastball that is paired with a curveball, which has more than 2800 RPMs and is 12 MPH slower than his 4-seamer — which creates excellent deception. But the real advantage Abbott has is being a lefty. In the last 30 days, the Rockies have a .218 batting average, .274 on-base percentage, .621 OPS and just a 52 wRC+ against southpaw pitching. For whatever reason, the Rockies just can’t hit left-handed pitching and really miss Charlie Blackmon and Kris Bryant in a time like this.
Colorado won’t be getting much help on the mound today either since Connor Seabold is pitching. The Rockies are hoping that Seabold has the mind of a goldfish after his last start because he was absolutely rocked, shelled and smashed by the Braves. Atlanta put up 9 runs on 9 hits, including 4 home runs, in just 3 innings. The Braves spit on Seabold’s offspeed and waited for his fastball, which he throws more than 50% of the time, and that was their key to success since Atlanta ranks 2nd against fastballs this season. The Braves’ powerful lineup took no mercy on Seabold’s fastball, and Cincinnati shouldn’t either. The Reds rank 5th in baseball against 4-seamers — just barely trailing Atlanta. Cincinnati put up 8 runs last night and is capable of doing it again tonight against Seabold and the shaky Colorado bullpen. I truly can’t believe how good of a price we’re getting with the Rockies starting Seabold and facing a left-handed pitcher, so this is a 3-unit play from me.
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Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins F3 Under 2.5 (-105)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
If you’re following me on Twitter, and if not you totally should, you would know I’ve targeted this bet twice already in this series — and I’m 2-0. Considering the series opener finished with 12 runs and last night’s game had 14, it might be a surprise to see the first 3 innings under cashed in both. But that’s where I’ve found a huge edge for starting pitchers. Instead of doing a first 5 innings bet and letting the lineup get a second look at the starting pitcher, the first 3 innings under is essentially just a single trip around the order. So even though Monday’s game had 12 runs scored, only 1 run was scored in the first 3 innings. And in last night’s 14-run bonanza, not a single run was scored in the opening 3 frames. So, I’m going right back to the well tonight. The pitching matchup features Garrett Whitlock against Sonny Gray, and the first 3 innings total is once again set at 2.5 runs; sign me up!
Whitlock was Boston’s best bullpen arm last season which earned him an opportunity in the starting rotation this year. However, looking at his numbers on paper, he hasn’t been great. I take his season-long numbers with a grain of salt because he had 3 poor starts at the beginning of the season and then went on the injured list for a month. Since coming back, Whitlock has been much better. More importantly for this bet, he has allowed just 4 runs in the first 3 innings during his last 4 starts. Three of those 4 runs were courtesy of the Rays, and Minnesota’s offense isn’t exactly similar to Tampa Bay’s. Opposing Whitlock will be one of Minnesota’s few aces, Mr. Sonny Gray. The veteran is in a battle for the ERA title this season as he currently ranks 4th, but he has been as high as 1st. He has been great all season, especially at home. In Minnesota, Gray is 3-1 with a 1.96 ERA and just a .225 batting average against. The comforts of home go a long way for Gray, which has helped him be at his best in the first few innings. In fact, in his last 10 outings he has given up just 3 runs in the first 3 innings. Expect scoring to be scarce and strikeouts to be high in Minnesota tonight. Two-unit play from me!
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