Ricky Dimon
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It’s women’s semifinal day at the French Open on Thursday. Two of the semifinalists are exactly who we expected, as top seeds Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka have played their way through the draw without too much trouble. The other two are surprising, as Karolina Muchova is unseeded and Beatriz Haddad Maia had never been past the second round of any Grand Slam prior to this fortnight. Is an upset in the cards – either Haddad Maia over Swiatek or Muchova over Sabalenka?
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made for Day 12 at Roland Garros.
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Aryna Sabalenka -1.5 sets over Karolina Muchova (-125)
Sabalenka has not dropped a single set through 5 matches at Roland Garros. Moreover, the world #2 has been extended to a tiebreaker only once (by Sloane Stephens in the fourth round). Thus continues a stellar run of form for Sabalenka, whose clay-court swing features a title in Stuttgart (beat Swiatek in the final) and a runner-up showing in Madrid (lost to Swiatek in 3 sets).
Muchova is a worthy opponent who is better than her #43 ranking suggests, but she isn’t exactly a prime candidate to suddenly steal a set from Sabalenka. The Czech had previously never been past round 3 of the French Open and outside of a first-round meeting with Maria Sakkari she has benefited from a favorable draw (faced unseeded opponents in both the fourth round and quarterfinals). Look for Sabalenka to stay perfect in sets in Paris.
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Iga Swiatek vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia Under 18.5 games (-120)
It’s true that 18.5 is a relatively small number…but it isn’t small enough – not when Swiatek is on the court. The world #1 hasn’t gone over this number once in the entire tournament. In fact, she has been pushed to more than 16 games on just 1 occasion (Coco Gauff lost to Swiatek 6-4, 6-2 in the quarterfinals on Wednesday). This run of dominance by the Pole features a quartet of 6-0 sets, including 2 in a 6-0, 6-0 double-bagel drubbing of Xinyu Wang during third-round action.
I can’t see Haddad Maia being the player to change that trend. The Brazilian finds herself in uncharted waters in the semifinals of a Grand Slam and to say that she had to use up a lot of energy to get here would be a gross understatement. She has played 4 consecutive 3-set matches, which lasted 2 hours and 43 minutes, 2 hours and 48 minutes, 3 hours and 51 minutes and 2 hours and 29 minutes. Haddad Maia isn’t going to have much left in the tank, especially with no days off in between the quarters and semis. The underdog will have to win free points on serve, because she won’t be able to hang with Swiatek from the baseline. Unfortunately for Haddad Maia, she has struck only 6 aces this whole event while double-faulting 18 times. I’m expecting a beatdown.
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