NFL Best Bets

The obvious approach in a game with 2 offenses as potent as the Cowboys and Lions is to consider the over. Markets obviously know that. Even at opening, this total was far above average and has barely budged, now circulating around 53.5 depending on the book. Both programs have shown impressive defensive performances at various junctures this season, but for the most part Dallas and Detroit are well below the mean on that side of the ball.

For example, although they’ve played better recently, the Cowboys rank in the bottom 5 in opponent points per game and points per play and in opponent yards per game in yards per play. Lately their defense has been aided by new additions Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, who coincidentally arrived around the same time that Dallas’ defensive roster got healthier. That helped their resistance limit the Raiders to 16 and the Eagles to 21 points, but last week they still permitted 28 to the Chiefs, a team far more comparable to the high-powered Lions.

It’s tough not to be disappointed by Detroit’s performance last Thursday, but one must keep in mind that it was against a tough divisional opponent. Green Bay seems to have Detroit’s number. Dallas can say no such thing. Last season, the Cowboys allowed a similarly constructed Lions’ roster to put up 47 points at AT&T Stadium. This Thursday, Detroit is surely incurring some injury problems, but they should also be hyper-motivated to correct their mistakes, especially since the NFC North crown is at risk of slipping away. And as most know, the Lions depend on their offense to carry them to victory (they’re top three in points and yards per game).

We could get cute here, but we must take the over.

Cowboys vs Lions best bet: Over 53.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 54.5.

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Unsurprisingly The Texans’ defense ranks 1st overall in opponent points (16.5) and yards (265.7) per game, and they’re top-two on preventing third down conversions (33.77%). Needless to say, the Chiefs’ offense will face challenges on Sunday night. Overall Kansas City still qualifies as a top-tier operation, ranking #1 in overall EPA metrics, including top-4 marks in EPA per pass and EPA per rush. Those metrics are mostly due to a generational quarterback talent and one of the greatest playcallers in NFL history, a duo that’s been at the top since they joined forces seven years ago. But the Chiefs are not without their flaws.

Mahomes is getting sacked more than he ever has in his career, 27 times in just 12 games. Against good defenses he’s also been limited, throwing for just 240 yards per game and a lowly 61% completion percentage against the Chargers, Eagles, and Broncos. The Texans’ defense is the best or one of the best in nearly every conceivable metric against the pass, including a #1 rank in defensive EPA per pass and top-three marks in opponent yards per pass (6.3) and completion percentage (58.4%). It doesn’t help that the Chiefs’ offensive line, which has grossly underperformed this year, is all banged up. Three out of five linemen are questionable, two are trending in the wrong direction. Kansas City’s rushing attack has been a middling operation all season, ranked 15th in yards per rush (4.4). Houston is just as stingy in run-defense, too (3rd in opponent rush yards per game).

We haven’t talked much about the Texans’ offense because we don’t believe we need to. CJ Stroud has been good, not great, and as a group they average 21.9 points per game (21st). At Arrowhead Stadium on a cold, blustery night, we don’t like their chances to overperform against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, especially after their poor outing last week. There’s only one way we can look here.

Texans vs Chiefs best bet: Under 42.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 41.5.

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