Filip Tomic
We were just one De’Andre Hunter three away from cashing on my +628 Pacers vs Cavaliers Game 1 SGP, I’m hoping to have that bit of luck go my way with today’s bet. I’m focusing on the series opener between the Knicks and Celtics, tipping off at 7 pm ET on TNT.
Get predictions on the side and total for all NBA postseason games on our NBA Picks page but now let’s get into my Knicks vs Celtics Game 1 bet!
Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 Points (-108)
Karl-Anthony Towns to Record 10+ Rebounds (-265)
Josh Hart Over 4.5 Assists (-162)
Same Game Parlay odds: +301
Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 Points (-108)
The Knicks had no answer for Tatum during the regular season as he dominated them in the 4 match-ups averaging 33.5 points. His shooting splits in those 4 games were 53.5% from the field and 47.8% from three, he also knocked down 80% of his free throw attempts. And it’s been a similar story in the 4 postseason games so far, where Tatum is averaging 31.3 points per game. He had a slow start to the series vs Orlando scoring just 17 in the opener and injuring his wrist which caused him to sit out Game 2. There’s no reason for concern though, the last 3 games in the series where he had 35+ points in each game proves that there is no wrist injury and the Celtics can rely on their best player to carry them moving forward. New York’s defense struggled against much less talented wings in Round 1 against Detroit, I just don’t see how they contain Tatum here. He’s scored 30+ in 6 of 10 meetings while averaging 30.5 points in those 10 games.
Karl-Anthony Towns to Record 10+ Rebounds (-265)
KAT’s rebounding has been consistent all year long, he wrapped up the regular season leading the Knicks in rebounds per game at 12.8 which ranked 2nd in the NBA. That number is slightly down after a grueling series vs the Pistons, but Towns still averaged 10 boards per game in that match-up. He’s cleared this line in back-to-back games, against Boston he averaged 12 per game during the 4 regular season meetings, at TD Garden that number was at 12.5 per game in two visits. Him and Kristaps Porzingis are very similar players, but the difference is the Knicks don’t have an adequate substitution for KAT which will see him play way more minutes. Towns is averaging 9.9 rebounds per game in the last 10 meetings with the Latvian, their duel down low could be the difference in the series. I expect KAT to be on top of his game in the series opener.
Josh Hart Over 4.5 Assists (-162)
Betting on Josh Hart to record 5 assists has yielded profit in all but one of his last 10 games. That streak unfortunately ended in the Game 6 win over Detroit where he had just 4, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t look into backing him to get 5 dimes in the series opener vs Boston. Finding a bet that cashes 90% of the time at -162 odds isn’t easy these days, especially not for a player who averaged 6.9 assists per game over his last 10 games. In 37 road games this year he’s at 6.1 dimes per game, while against the Celtics he averaged 5.5 per game in the 4 meetings during the regular season. Jalen Brunson spent a lot of energy in the series clinching win over Detroit, relying on him to score 40 points a night and carrying the Knicks to a win in this series is unrealistic. If New York wants this series to go the distance others will have to step up and since their bench is very thin, I expect the starters to log 40+ mins regularly here. Last season Hart played 48 mins in the first two games of Round 2 vs Indiana recording 8 and 7 assists, we can only hope that’ll be the case this time series as well.
