Thursday was a smaller day of baseball as most teams earned a day off or were traveling to their next series. That means all 30 teams are taking the field on Friday, with the first game starting at 6:40 pm ET in Detroit and finishing with a pair of 10:10 pm ET starts in Los Angeles and Seattle. With a loaded slate of games, I’ve found 3 edges that I believe make up the perfect parlay. Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Friday.
Yankees -1.5 (+125)
Rays -1.5 (+138)
Mets -1.5 (-105)
MLB parlay odds: +945
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New York Yankees -1.5 over Minnesota Twins (+125)
When Nestor Cortes is at home, the Yankees have value. The Yankees were 12-3 in Cortes’ 15 regular season home starts last year and the southpaw was one of the best pitchers at home in all of baseball. In those 15 starts, Cortes had a 1.95 ERA and a 0.821 WHIP at Yankee Stadium. Although Yankee Stadium is known to be a hitter-friendly ballpark because of the short porch in right field, that has never seemed to affect Cortes. He limited opponents to a .161 batting average and a .222 on-base percentage at home last year, and earned the win in his first home start this season against the Phillies. On Friday night, he will face an offense that ranks 24th in OPS and 26th in on-base percentage against lefties this season.
The Minnesota offense has been dreadful in the first two weeks of this season. Heading into Thursday’s game, the Twins ranked 25th in runs per game, and their lineup has drastically underperformed. That’s been their biggest weakness so far, but their strength has been their pitching. Minnesota’s starting rotation ranked 2nd in ERA and 1st in WHIP before Thursday night, and their #4 starter will take the hill for the second game of this series. Tyler Mahle had a solid season debut against the Marlins but followed it up with a poor outing against an Astros team that had 8 hits, including a home run, in 6 innings. New York has a massive advantage at the plate which should earn them a multi-run win.
Check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets for Friday
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 over Toronto Blue Jays (+138)
How about a little respect for the Tampa Bay Rays?! Tampa Bay has tied the 1987 Milwaukee Brewers and the 1982 Atlanta Braves as the only teams to start 13-0. Possibly even more impressive is that they’ve won 12 of the 13 games by at least 2 runs. In their final 3 games of the series against the Red Sox, the Rays outscored Boston 27-12, which raised their season average to 7.67 runs per game. Their team has been so successful because their pitching has been top notch and their lineup has been hitting the cover off the ball. That should continue on Friday because the Rays will face Jose Berrios, who’s had one of the fastest declines I’ve ever seen.
Just two seasons ago, Berrios was the ace of the Minnesota Twins. However, his career has changed since being traded to the Blue Jays. He had a 5.23 ERA paired with a 5.11 xERA last season and had career highs in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xBA and much more. His struggles continued into the World Baseball Classic for Puerto Rico, and to no surprise, he’s been shelled in both starts this season. Through 9.2 innings, Berrios has allowed 14 runs and 15 hits to the Royals and Angels. Opponents are hitting .349 with a .949 OPS against Berrios, and the lineup he faces on Friday ranks 1st in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS this season. The Rays should do what they’ve done all season and score runs — and a lot of them.
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New York Mets -1.5 over Oakland Athletics (-105)
The ghost fork has taken over baseball. Kodai Senga has been excellent in his first few starts in the MLB and his forkball pitch has raised comparisons to Shohei Ohtani’s splitter. In two outings, Senga has allowed 2 runs and 6 hits along with 14 strikeouts in 11.1 innings. Twelve of Senga’s 14 strikeouts have come via his ghost fork, which has a 60% whiff rate and a .071 batting average against paired with a .038 xBA. It’s possibly the most lethal pitch in the Majors right now, and his next victim will be the Oakland Athletics.
It’s been a long and flat-out disappointing rebuild for the A’s as they once again find themselves in the basement of the standings. They’ve lost 7 of their last 8 games and rank 27th in runs per game. But remember A’s fans, it’s a marathon, not a sprint! It just happens to be a terribly long marathon in Oakland.
The Athletics will send James Kaprielian to the mound for his third start of the season. When Oakland traded Sonny Gray for Kaprielian back in 2017, they thought they were getting a prospect with excellent upside and potential. However, it hasn’t been a smooth start to his career. He’s had an ERA above four for the last two seasons and has had a rough start to the 2023 season. He’s allowed 12 runs and 14 hits in a total of 9.2 innings, and the most concerning part is that 4 of the hits have gone over the fence. New York has had a slow start to the season, but Kaprielian gives the Mets the perfect opportunity to score in bunches.
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