MLB Friday three-team mega parlay 7/1 (+1366 odds): Padres among our upset plays
We are getting the weekend in Major League Baseball started with a full 15-game slate on Friday, 13 of which are in the evening or at night. A 10:10 pm ET showdown between the Padres and Dodgers on FS1 headlines the action, while the Angels and Astros are playing one of two games being shown on Apple TV+.
On Wednesday we cashed both our mega parlay (+1085) and standard parlay (+454), so let’s keep the momentum going!
Orioles ML (+175)
Mariners -1.5 (+105)
Padres ML (+160)
Parlay odds: +1366
For this parlay we are going with two underdogs on the money line and one favorite on the run line. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.
Baltimore Orioles ML over Minnesota Twins (+175)
The Orioles have the advantage in the bullpen (3.58 reliever FIP to 4.19) and on defense (6th in Defensive Runs Saved to 15th). They have been respectable on offense over the last 30 days (100 wRC+), so plenty of runs should be expected tonight – especially against the Twins’ bullpen. Minnesota relievers allowed 5 runs in the last 2 innings against the Guardians on Monday. Baltimore has won the last 2 meetings with Minnesota, so getting the visitors at this price is too good to pass up.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins
Seattle Mariners -1.5 over Oakland Athletics (+105)
Although they rank in the bottom 10 of MLB in runs scored, the Mariners are 9th in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) – a massive disconnect. Consider it only a matter of time before that leads to more runs scored, and this is the perfect spot. Oakland starter James Kaprielian has been one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball. Add in Oakland’s bullpen struggles and the time is clearly now for the runs to start coming for Seattle. Although Mariners starter Marco Gonzales’ peripherals (5.14 SIERA) aren’t much better than Kaprielian’s, he is a pitcher who naturally allows a low batting average on balls in play (BABIP) due to inducing a lot of weak pop-ups (11.3% infield fly ball rate). Plus, no team in baseball has a lower wRC+ than the A’s.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners
San Diego Padres ML over Los Angeles Dodgers (+160)
With a 5.60 ERA in 7 starts, it has been a rollercoaster year for San Diego starter Blake Snell. However, there are reasons to be optimistic. For starters, Snell’s changeup (.461 wOBA allowed in 2021) has always been a pitch he struggles to command and he seems to have recognized that by throwing it less than 5% of the time in his last 2 starts. Considering how lethal his slider (42.5% whiff rate) and curveball (50% whiff rate) are, that is a major positive. This should be a good pitching matchup between Snell and Tony Gonsolin. If it stays a low-scoring affair, there is no reason why the Padres can’t pull it out late for an upset over their division rivals. A sizable +160 price is intriguing.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers