Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners predictions

Sun 7/25 4:10 ET
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
Safeco Field

Pickswise's Expert Predictions & Analysis

Money Line Prediction
OAK Athletics Win
Game Totals Prediction

Money Line Prediction

After winning the series opener of this four game set on Thursday evening, the Oakland Athletics lost 4-3 on Friday and 5-4 last night. The Seattle Mariners continue to outperform their preseason expectations and are only two-and-a-half games out of a playoff position as we near the trade deadline. On Sunday, the starting pitching matchup in this series finale will feature Cole Irvin for the Athletics, who will be opposed by Marco Gonzales.

Irvin owns a 3.42 ERA, 4.47 xERA, and a 3.63 FIP through 19 turns in the rotation in 2021. He ranks in only the 15th percentile in fastball velocity among MLB pitchers, but he has been able to limit baserunners to the tune of a 1.18 WHIP thanks to elite command and an ability to limit hard-contact against him. Seattle’s lineup is boom-or-bust against southpaws, ranking 27th in OPS and 12th in ISO, while striking-out at one of the highest rates in the league. Irvin is capable of delivering a strong performance in this one to salvage a series-split for Oakland. Gonzales has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season–posting a 5.69 ERA, 7.81 xERA, and a 6.12 FIP across 61.2 innings of work. He strikes-out too few batters and walks too many and allows far too much hard-contact against him. Oakland’s offense has struggled in July, but if there is any pitcher that could help them regain some confidence, it is Gonzales.

In this matchup, Oakland has the superior starting pitcher by a wide margin. Their offense has been unreliable over the last 30 days, but Seattle’s lineup is equally inconsistent and susceptible to a poor showing here. There is risk on either side of this play, but a small wager on Oakland makes sense after considering all of the data.

Game Totals Prediction

In the first three games of this series, the game total has been five, seven, and nine runs, respectively. Thus far in 2021, T-Mobile Park has graded as the most pitcher-friendly venue in Major League Baseball in day games by a wide margin–producing 18 percent less offense compared to league average. Gonzales’ struggles this year are well-documented, but he has a somewhat favorable matchup here against a struggling Oakland lineup. Irvin has been an extremely reliable rotation piece for the Athletics and should once again limit the damage done against him before he hands the game off to the bullpen. Take the under in this one.

Under 8.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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