Caleb Wilfinger
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With the Atlanta Braves boasting the National League’s best record and the Minnesota Twins sitting at the top of the AL Central, this interleague showdown on TBS should be fun. This is the second game of a 3-game set between the Braves and Twins in what could be one of the best series of the week.
Below is my Same Game Parlay for this matchup, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Twins ML (+132)
Ronald Acuna Jr. to record 2+ hits (+200)
Same Game Parlay odds: +726
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That appears to be the case here, as Ronald Acuna picking up 2 hits for the Braves doesn’t go with a Twins money line bet on paper.
Minnesota Twins ML (+132) over Atlanta Braves
It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the Twins feel confident taking on the best team in the National League on the road, but Joe Ryan getting the start should give Minnesota a boost on Tuesday. The right-hander is 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 0.91 WHIP on the season, as he continues to be one of the American League’s best pitchers. Most impressively, Ryan has tallied 100 strikeouts to just 15 walks in 93.2 innings of work, an important stat against a dangerous Braves lineup that can’t be given free passes.
Ryan is coming off a complete-game shutout of Boston last Thursday, so I like him to stay hot in this one. And while Bryce Elder has been surprisingly solid this season (2.40 ERA in 90.0 IP), his xERA is well over a point higher than his actual ERA, which suggests that major regression is coming for the Braves starter. Minnesota’s offense has provided Ryan with good run support this season, and they shouldn’t need much to give their starter a cushion to work with. I’ll gladly take the plus-money with the Twins.
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Ronald Acuna Jr. to record 2+ hits (+200)
Ronald Acuna is the engine that makes the Braves offense go, and that hasn’t changed over the course of this season. Atlanta’s talisman is the current odds-on favorite for the NL MVP award, and it’s easy to see why. Not only is Acuna hitting .328 with 104 hits and 49 RBIs this season, but he’s often getting 5 at-bats per game from the leadoff spot as the catalyst for this explosive Atlanta offense. Given that he’s never faced Ryan, there isn’t much precedent to go on when analyzing this matchup for Acuna. However, the right fielder has recorded 2+ hits in 3 of his last 6 games, including 6 hits over the course of a 3-game series against the Reds last weekend. Acuna is hitting .331 with an OPS of .972 this season against RHP, so I expect him to see more success in this one.
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