Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes. I’m on a 8-1-1 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Sunday, so let’s get right into it.
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Angels: NRFI (-125)
For my first pick on Sunday’s slate, I’m taking the NRFI in a matchup between the Diamondbacks and Reds. Zac Gallen has been extremely consistent all season long and the Arizona ace should have no trouble in the opening frame as he looks to toss his 15th scoreless first inning in 18 outings in 2023. With a 3.02 ERA and 12 quality starts on the season, Gallen is one of the best pitchers in the NL and should prove it once again in this one. On the other side, the hosts will counter with Reid Detmers, who has been equally as hot over his last 4 starts, surrendering just 3 runs in his last 26 innings pitched. With just 9 hits and 2 runs allowed in his last 19.2 IP at home, I’m expecting another quick start from Detmers as he keeps producing.
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Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies: YRFI (-140)
For my second pick on Sunday’s card, I’m going with the YRFI in this NL East showdown between the Nationals and Phillies. Trevor Williams will get the start for Washington in this one, and the right-hander has been a serviceable back of the rotation piece for the Nationals this season on paper. However, his advanced metrics are far less kind than some of his recent outings would suggest. Williams holds an xERA of 5.23, nearly a full point higher than his current ERA. Furthermore, the righties whiff rate ranks in the 9th percentile, his xSLG is in the 10th percentile and he continues to rack up over 4 pitches per plate appearance this season. The top of Philadelphia’s order has great career numbers against Williams, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they struck first.
Even if the Phillies don’t tack on a run in the opening frame, the Nationals should be able to get to Ranger Suarez. Much like Williams, Suarez’s metrics look decent on paper, but the advanced numbers tell a different story. The left-hander holds an xERA of 4.22, over a point higher than his actual ERA, to go along with below average xBA, xSLG and chase rate metrics. The Nats have a good chance to pushing a run across the board in the first inning, so let’s back the YRFI at Citizens Bank Park.
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